While confidence measures were below 50% in every state and territory, the AMPLIFY Home Truths report found some jurisdictions are faring better than others in delivering homes.
The study analysed official ABS data to assess state-by-state progress in delivering the national target of 1.2 million homes by mid-2029.
It found the ACT leads the country on track to completing 96.4% of the homes it needs.
Yet, despite the high delivery rate, the confidence level of ACT residents surveyed was 46.1% - the highest confidence ranking of all the states and territories.
Victoria was the next best performing state, looking likely to complete 90.1% of the homes needed, yet confidence in the state government was the lowest nationally at 33.4%.
The report found this was the sharpest disconnect between performance and community sentiment.
Below is a table of home completion and confidence rates by state and territory:
| State/territory | On track for housing completions (%) | Community confidence (%) |
| ACT | 94.6% | 46.1% |
| Victoria | 90.1% | 33.4% |
| WA | 85.6% | 33.1% |
| SA | 73.8% | 44.5% |
| Queensland | 67.7% | 34.0% |
| NSW | 56.2% | 39.8% |
| Tasmania | 47.6% | 33.1% |
| NT | 19.5% | 44.5% |
Source: AMPLIFY Home Truths Report (Housing completions based on ABS data analysis; confidence rates calculated from survey of 4,000 Australians)
How did each state fare?
Western Australia also showed robust home completions (on course for 86.5% of target) but relatively weak confidence (33.1%).
Conversely, New South Wales had significantly lower home delivery, tracking at 56.2% of target, but a higher confidence rating of 39.8%.
The report said this suggested the need for the WA government to implement better community engagement.
South Australia scored the second-highest confidence rating of 44.5% as well as solid progress towards home delivery (73.8% of target).
The report named SA's Malinauskas administration as the most trusted state government in Australia.
And the rest...
Meantime, Queensland is on the path to complete around two-thirds of the state's housing needs (67.7%), with a confidence score of 34%.
Many Queenslanders surveyed raised concerns that major infrastructure projects underway, or mooted, in the lead up to the 2032 Olympics was leading to a lack of construction skills available for housing.
One respondent lamented the "agonisingly slow" pace of new builds due to poor availability of trades.
Tasmania looks likely to deliver less than half the state's housing needs (47.6%), reflected in a 33.1% confidence rating.
The Northern Territory was the worst performing jurisdiction for housing completions, seemingly set to deliver just 19.5% of what is needed, although its confidence rating was relatively high at 44.5%.
The AMPLIFY report issued a state and territory report card based on combined results of the two measures to come up with an single-score index, as follows:
| State/territory | Home Truths index (%) |
| ACT | 61.8% |
| South Australia | 56.4% |
| Victoria | 52.4% |
| Western Australia | 51.8% |
| Queensland | 48.0% |
| New South Wales | 47.4% |
| Tasmania | 39.9% |
| Northern Territory | 30.9% |
Source: AMPLIFY Home Truths Report
Secure housing 'slipping further out of reach'
The report said the data showed Australia is "off track" in completing the homes it needs while public confidence in housing delivery is at rock bottom.
"The promise of an affordable and secure home for Australians has been broken," AMPLIFY CEO Georgina Harisson said.
"Governments can deliver the conditions needed for more homes but need to work with the community to rebuild the confidence ... that progress will be material and lasting."
She suggested when people feel disconnected from decision making, optimism is eroded - even in markets were housing targets are achievable, such as the ACT.
Land prices a major 'roadblock'
Meantime, the housing industry has singled out the cost of land as "the key obstacle" in Australia reaching its housing target.
The Housing Industry Association (HIA) said the median price of residential land jumped 6.8% nationally over the 2024/25 financial year, more than three times the rate of inflation.
Its Residential Land Report, in conjunction with Cotality, looked at lot sales in 52 housing markets across Australia.
The report found home buyers have flocked to Western Australia, South Australia, and Queensland where abundant and shovel-ready land had been available, driving the highest rates in home building activity.
But HIA chief economist Tim Reardon said this has come with downsides.
"Unfortunately, it is also producing some of the fastest increases in lot prices in the nation," he said.
"If this continues, the competitive advantage these states hold with lower land prices attracting new residents, will be lost relatively quickly."
Land prices in Perth skyrocket
Lot prices in Perth have jumped 29.8% over the last year and almost 50% in the past 18 months, the report found.
Meantime, Brisbane's lot prices have now overtaken Melbourne's for the first time in almost a decade, jumping 9.2% in the last year.
Currently, Perth's lot prices are just behind Melbourne's while Adelaide still maintains a significant affordability advantage over the larger capitals.
Nonetheless, the price of land per square metre in Adelaide has risen 27.6% in the past year - equating to an 8.1% jump for a typical lot over 2024-25.
Mr Reardon said this had seen households choosing smaller blocks of land.
"These recent developments illustrate the importance of policymakers facilitating healthy pipelines of shovel-ready land across their states," he said.
"The return of demand for new housing, especially as borrowing costs have fallen, will be increasingly diverted into the established housing market, driving up prices and worsening the affordability crisis."
NAB to boost residential development lending
The call comes as NAB announced it will commit at least $60 billion in financing over the next five years to tackle Australia's housing crisis.
The big bank will allocate $30 billion for up to 55,000 first home buyers accessing the federal government's 5% Deposit Scheme.
It is committing another $30 million to boosting housing supply, including real estate development projects primarily aimed at the residential sector.
In an open letter, NAB CEO Andrew Irvine declared housing "Australia's biggest societal and policy challenge".
"We are not building enough homes to provide access to housing for all Australians, let alone achieve the dream of home ownership," he wrote.  
"NAB recognises and embraces the opportunity we have to address this challenge."  
The commitment represents a 20% increase in its current lending to the residential development sector.
NAB plans to supplement its own funds with third-party capital contributions from superannuation and sovereign wealth funds as well as large institutional investors.
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