In a surprise to no one, the RBA board is keeping the cash rate on hold despite the US Fed delivering a hefty 50 basis point cut to its benchmark rate last week.
In her post-decision media conference, Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock reiterated Australia's situation remains different from other developed economies where interest rates have been falling for some months.
Ms Bullock said Australia's cash rate was not as high as many other countries' benchmark rates while the labour market hasn't shown the same contractions as some other economies.
In a statement released with the cash rate decision, the board reiterated fighting inflation remains the main game, dismissing "temporarily" falling headline inflation as a result of federal and state cost-of-living relief measures.
Rate rise 'not explicitly' discussed
Analysts will no doubt leap upon Ms Bullock's concession that a rise in the cash rate was "not explicitly discussed" at the meeting.
Instead, she said the board considered the official data that had come in since the August meeting and asked itself whether anything had changed sufficiently to warrant a policy adjustment.
Ms Bullock said the board concluded it had not.
It is the first time over recent meetings that Ms Bullock has revealed a cash rate rise was not explicitly on the table.
Bullock avoids politics
The RBA has been under pressure from the federal government to lower interest rates amid poor economic growth figures, weak consumer spending, and an easing in inflation.
Indeed, much economic data has come in generally softer than the RBA's modelling, though GDP growth is running slight ahead of RBA forecasts, buoyed by government spending.
However, Ms Bullock gracefully sidestepped political questions, saying the RBA was focussed on bringing underlying inflation down to its target range of 2-3%.
Her tone was perhaps slightly less hawkish than recent months when she appeared to offer further explanation to her statement that some homeowners had to be prepared to sell their homes if they were struggling with interest rates.
She said the Reserve Bank understood that people were affected by their policies, but the board "only had the one tool" at its disposal.
Inflation running cooler
She acknowledged Wednesday's monthly CPI data will show a considerable drop in headline inflation with federal and state relief measures dragging down the annualised rate for August.
Analysts forecast the figure to come in at 2.7%, a hefty 0.8% drop on the July rate of 3.5%.
She reiterated the Reserve Bank was looking past temporary monthly fluctuations and was more interested in bringing underlying inflation down.
RBA modelling, released under the Freedom of Information Act earlier in the month, showed energy rebates and other cost of living measures are expected to trim CPI inflation by 0.6% in August.
However, the correspondence also noted the risk of cost-of-living measures rolling off in 2025 and the base yo-yo effect it will have on inflation figures this time next year.
Its modelling also "doesn’t take into account broader economic effects from aggregate demand" by putting cash back into consumers' pockets.
So, when will the first cash rate cut be?
As usual, Ms Bullock would not be drawn on a likely timeframe for a first cut to the cash rate to end the current hiking cycle.
She reiterated the board could not see a case for a cut to the cash rate "in the near term".
However, she noted it was vigilant to uncertainties including the wider geopolitical situation and the prospect of consumption rising again in the second half of the year as pressures on income ease.
And what would a post-meeting media conference be without at least one deferral to her old chestnut: "the board isn't ruling anything in or out".
The next RBA cash rate decision is due to be announced on Tuesday 5 November, Melbourne Cup Day.
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| Lender | Home Loan | Interest Rate | Comparison Rate* | Monthly Repayment | Repayment type | Rate Type | Offset | Redraw | Ongoing Fees | Upfront Fees | Max LVR | Lump Sum Repayment | Extra Repayments | Split Loan Option | Tags | Features | Link | Compare | Promoted Product | Disclosure |
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