Michele Bullock says it's possible there will be no more rate cuts

The cash rate will stay at 3.60% until at least December, and Ms Bullock said it might remain so for the forseeable future.

"The Board's going to have to wait and see; it's possible there's no more rate cuts, it's possible there are some more," she told media after the decision.

There have been three rate cuts so far this year but after the September CPI showed prices rose more than 3% over the previous year, the RBA is concerned about persistent inflation above the 2-3% target band.

The updated forecasts in today's Statement on Monetary Policy (SOMP) have annual trimmed mean inflation (what the RBA usually refers to) above 3% until at least June next year after the unexpected increase through September.

Labour productivity is forecast to pickup somewhat in the fourth quarter of this year, at 0.9%, versus a forecast 0.3% over the previous estimates.

This upwards revision is somewhat at odds with the recent pickup in inflation, which hints at supply constraints as the labour market operates at near full capacity. 

Some economists have even suggested the numbers mean the next move from the RBA is more likely to be a hike, a suggestion Ms Bullock did not dismiss.

"Anything's possible," she said in response to a question about potential future hikes.

"All I would say is I think we're at the right spot we need to be at the moment and we can respond where the risks arise."

Not jumping just yet

At the same time, Ms Bullock confirmed the Board did not consider a hike during Tuesday's meeting.

She said the Board remains of the view underlying inflation will start to come down, with some noise potentially in the September read.

"Things like rates went up by 8%, we saw fuel [prices] go up, it's always very volatile," she explained.

However, she confirmed the Board still took "signal" from some of the CPI figures.

"New dwelling [prices] and also market services, both of those things tend to be persistent and they are reflective, we think, of a bit of a recovery in demand," she said.

Earlier in the meeting, she also confirmed that the Board didn't consider cutting rates during the meeting.

"We basically just talked about holding and the reasons to hold and then discussing strategy moving out depending on what way."

Labour market still tight?

Aside from the CPI, Ms Bullock also talked a lot about the labour market and the unemployment rate - the other half of the RBA's dual mandate.

Unemployment unexpectedly increased to 4.5% in September, above the previous RBA forecast, which some economists and traders thought pointed towards a cash rate cut.

Digging into the data though, there was still a 15,000 increase in the number of employed people, and Ms Bullock said during the press conference she still thinks the labour market is a little tight.

"Employment is growing, but at a slower pace than before," she said.

"Overall when we take into account a broad range of indicators we judge the labour market is still a little bit tight relative to full employment."

December rate cut out of the question?

There's now just one more monetary policy decision for 2025.

The Board will convene for the final time on 9 December, and the indicators at the moment suggest the likeliest outcome for now is another hold.

Ms Bullock though reaffirmed she would not give any "forward guidance" and said the December decision will be determined by the incoming data.

"We'll have national accounts, we'll have labour market [data for October], we'll have the first monthly CPI, so there will be more information [in December]."

At the same time, she also suggested mortgage holders probably shouldn't get their hopes up about the prospects of a cut in time for Christmas.

"We've already had three interest rate cuts; I know mortgage holders want more, but it's also important we make sure we keep inflation under control because ultimately that's also what affects people's living standards," she said.