- NAB has lifted its fixed home loan rates by up to 0.20%
- It follows recent fixed rate hikes by major lenders Westpac and Macquarie
- It's yet another sign the market is preparing for a potential hike to interest rates in 2026
- CommBank and NAB economists are now forecasting there will be a 0.25% increase to the cash rate in February
Australia's third-largest home lender has lifted its Tailored home loan fixed rates in yet another sign the market is preparing for interest rate increases heading into 2026.
The hike came before both CommBank and NAB economists changed their interest rate forecasts to back an increase to the Reserve Bank cash rate in February.
NAB's new featured fixed rate is 5.39% p.a. (6.16% p.a. comparison rate*) for owner occupiers taking out a two-year fixed home loan with a deposit of 20% or more and making principal and interest (P&I) repayments.
NAB joins its big bank counterparts Westpac which raised its fixed rates twice in a month - in November and again last week - and Macquarie that also raised its fixed rates in November.
Macquarie's rate rise saw the end of its sub-5% fixed home loan rate, with CommBank ending its 4.99% p.a. fixed rate special offer a couple of weeks later.
Sub-5% home loan rates are now the domain of smaller lenders and mutual banks, and include some variable rate deals available to first home buyers or essential workers.
See also: Which home loans offer interest rates below 5%?
NAB's fixed home loan rates
Here's a rundown of NAB's new Tailored fixed home loan rates for owner occupiers making P&I repayments:
| Fixed term | Loan-to-value ratio (LVR) | Interest rate (% change) | Comparison rate* |
| 1 year | ≤60% | 5.39% p.a. (+0.10) | 6.06% p.a. |
| 60-70% | 5.39% p.a. (+0.10) | 6.06% p.a. | |
| 70-80% | 5.39% p.a. (+0.10) | 6.24% p.a. | |
| >80% | 5.49% p.a. (+0.20) | 6.25% p.a. | |
| 2 years | ≤60% | 5.39% p.a. (+0.20) | 6.00% p.a. |
| 60-70% | 5.39% p.a. (+0.20) | 6.00% p.a. | |
| 70-80% | 5.39% p.a. (+0.20) | 6.16% p.a. | |
| >80% | 5.49% p.a. (+0.20) | 6.18% p.a. | |
| 3 years | ≤60% | 5.44% p.a. (+0.15) | 5.96% p.a. |
| 60-70% | 5.44% p.a. (+0.15) | 5.96% p.a. | |
| 70-80% | 5.44% p.a. (+0.15) | 6.10% p.a. | |
| >80% | 5.54% p.a.(+0.15) | 6.13% p.a. | |
| 4 years | ≤60% | 5.79% p.a. (+0.10) | 6.04% p.a. |
| 60-70% | 5.79% p.a. (+0.10) | 6.04% p.a. | |
| 70-80% | 5.79% p.a. (+0.10) | 6.16% p.a. | |
| 5 years | ≤60% | 5.79% p.a. (+0.10) | 6.02% p.a. |
| 60-70% | 5.79% p.a. (+0.10) | 6.02% p.a. | |
| 70-80% | 5.79% p.a. (+0.10) | 6.13% p.a. |
The rates for investors making P&I repayments are 0.10% higher for those fixing for one, four, or five years and 0.15% higher for those fixing for two or three years.
For investors making interest only (IO) repayments, the rates are 0.20% higher than those above for one-, four-, or five-year terms and 0.25% higher for those fixing for two or three years.
Why are lenders raising fixed rates?
NAB's move to raise fixed home loan rates comes the day after it lifted its term deposit rates.
It's yet another signal lenders are preparing for a near-term interest rate hike.
Banks tend to lift term deposit rates in a bid to lure a more stable cash supply with the expectation wholesale funding costs will increase amid the prospect of a cash rate upcycle.
Shortly after NAB lifted its fixed rates on Tuesday, economists at Australia's largest home lender CommBank announced they now expect a 0.25% cash rate hike at the next Reserve Bank meeting in February.
That was followed a short time later by NAB economists who are now forecasting a 0.25% rise in February, followed by another 0.25% increase in May.
This would take the cash rate to 4.1%, half a percentage point higher than its current 3.60%.
Will the RBA lift the cash rate in February?
CommBank says the RBA will hike the cash rate to 3.85% to ensure reignited inflation returns to the mid-point of the 2-3% target band by the end of 2027.
The last inflation print put the annual inflation rate at 3.8%, with the trimmed mean figure - the RBA's preferred measure - also above the band at 3.3%.
CommBank economists say they don't expect a large hiking cycle with only "fine tuning" by the RBA to see the cash rate sitting at 3.85% at the end of 2026.
But NAB economists see the RBA making two cash rate increases, saying the economy is already at trend growth with private demand running stronger than the RBA anticipated.
They say stronger growth outcomes and persistent inflation for the December quarter will force "a modest recalibration of monetary policy" in the first half of 2026.
The updated forecasts will likely prompt some borrowers to consider fixing the interest rate on their variable-rate home loans before a possible rate hike early in 2026.
See also: Should you fix your home loan interest rate?
Inflation is key
Any lifting of the cash rate as early as February will likely hinge on key December inflation data due to be released on 28 January.
Some analysts are speculating headline inflation may be as high as 4%, pushed up by ongoing pressure from housing, food, and energy prices.
CBA and NAB economists are expecting a quarterly trimmed mean read of 0.9% for December, giving an annualised figure of 3.3% and indicating persistent underlying inflation.
Their Westpac counterparts are still holding the line the recent lift in inflation will be temporary and have pencilled in mid-year rate cuts.
Any increase in interest rates early in 2026 may well put the brakes on a rampant property market fuelled by record investor lending and the federal government's recently expanded 5% Deposit Scheme.
The RBA's monetary policy board will next meet on 2-3 February.
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Buying a home or looking to refinance? The table below features home loans with some of the lowest interest rates on the market for owner occupiers.
| Lender | Home Loan | Interest Rate | Comparison Rate* | Monthly Repayment | Repayment type | Rate Type | Offset | Redraw | Ongoing Fees | Upfront Fees | Max LVR | Lump Sum Repayment | Extra Repayments | Split Loan Option | Tags | Features | Link | Compare | Promoted Product | Disclosure |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
5.94% p.a. | 5.98% p.a. | $2,978 | Principal & Interest | Variable | $0 | $530 | 90% |
| Promoted | Disclosure | ||||||||||
5.89% p.a. | 5.80% p.a. | $2,962 | Principal & Interest | Variable | $0 | $0 | 80% |
| Promoted | Disclosure | ||||||||||
5.99% p.a. | 6.02% p.a. | $2,995 | Principal & Interest | Fixed | $0 | $0 | 60% |
| Promoted | Disclosure | ||||||||||
5.93% p.a. | 5.93% p.a. | $2,975 | Principal & Interest | Variable | $0 | $395 | 70% | Disclosure |
