Financial markets are pricing in a 9% chance the RBA will announce a cash rate cut when it hands down its December decision on Tuesday afternoon.
But that seems far better odds than commentators are giving.
A Reuters poll of 44 economists last week found all expected no change to the Australian cash rate this month.
Indeed, many analysts aren't expecting any move to the 4.35% cash rate until mid-2025.
Latest data not conducive to cash rate cut
That's despite Australia’s GDP growing at a sluggish annual rate of 0.8% as at the September quarter, below market expectations.
Though core inflation, last measured at 3.5% year-on-year, remains well above the RBA’s 2-3% target zone.
Falling national productivity shoulders some of the blame, with third-quarter data showing worker output continues to slide despite labour costs rising.
Employment figures have also remained relatively low which, in turn, fuels inflationary pressure.
When will the RBA cut rates?
Since the last RBA board meeting in early November, economists at NAB, Westpac, and ANZ have pushed out their forecasts of a cut to the cash rate to mid-next year.
Here’s when the big four banks are predicting the cash rate will drop:
| Bank | Forecast |
|---|---|
| ANZ | May 2025 |
| Commonwealth Bank | February 2025 |
| NAB | June quarter 2025 |
| Westpac | May 2025 |
The RBA board will release its statement on its December monetary policy decision tomorrow at 2:30 pm AEDT with governor Michele Bullock to front a post-meeting media conference an hour later.
Advertisement
Buying a home or looking to refinance? The table below features home loans with some of the lowest interest rates on the market for owner occupiers.
| Lender | Home Loan | Interest Rate | Comparison Rate* | Monthly Repayment | Repayment type | Rate Type | Offset | Redraw | Ongoing Fees | Upfront Fees | Max LVR | Lump Sum Repayment | Extra Repayments | Split Loan Option | Tags | Features | Link | Compare | Promoted Product | Disclosure |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
5.94% p.a. | 5.98% p.a. | $2,978 | Principal & Interest | Variable | $0 | $530 | 90% |
| Promoted | Disclosure | ||||||||||
5.89% p.a. | 5.80% p.a. | $2,962 | Principal & Interest | Variable | $0 | $0 | 80% |
| Promoted | Disclosure | ||||||||||
5.99% p.a. | 6.02% p.a. | $2,995 | Principal & Interest | Fixed | $0 | $0 | 60% |
| Promoted | Disclosure | ||||||||||
5.93% p.a. | 5.93% p.a. | $2,975 | Principal & Interest | Variable | $0 | $395 | 70% | Disclosure |
