While the decision to keep the cash rate on hold on 8 July came as a shock to many, to those tuned into the vibe of the RBA's monetary policy approach, it offered no surprise.

It was also the first monetary policy decision under the new-look board - the most prominent addition of which is Jenny Wilkinson replacing Steven Kennedy as Treasury Secretary. 

On Tuesday, the RBA released the minutes of July's board meeting and it is a document of measured response to all manner of domestic and global economic juggling balls.

Rating a strong mention in the minutes was the US Administration's rollout of tariffs and its 'Big Beautiful Bill'.

Reading between the lines, the goings-on in the US bore a heavy weight on May's decision to cut the cash rate.

However, the July minutes revealed the fallout from this may have been more benign than initially anticipated. 

In the lead up to the July meeting, economists at Australia's big four banks were unanimous in forecasting a cash rate cut, largely on the strength on May's cooling monthly inflation data.

The hold-out ANZ jumped on board after weak retail sales figures less than a week later.

The wait and see approach

But the hold in July signals the new-look RBA board could err more on the side of caution, favouring a steadfast reliance on key economic data rather than a reactionary response to geopolitical events.

In short, the board decided - all things considered - it could wait a little longer for further confirmation of the economy's trajectory before adjusting monetary policy again.

The June quarter inflation data, due to be released on 30 July, was noted as an "important" consideration before the board next meets to consider the cash rate in August.

The minutes also cited the board would have additional information on the labour market and how the "uncertain" world economy is evolving before then.

Jobs spanner

As it turned out, the jobs figures the board decided to wait for showed a shock jump in the unemployment rate to 4.3% in June.

It followed five consecutive months of the rate holding steady at 4.1%, a figure the board has consistently referred to as "tight".

The unexpected uptick in unemployment attracted considerable criticism the RBA had got it wrong in July and that the jobs market was not as robust as it believed.

For many commentators, it all but sealed the deal an August rate cut would be inevitable.

But, if nothing else, the July minutes reiterate the RBA does not blow with market winds.

Market pundits currently pricing in a 51% chance of a dramatic 50-basis point cash rate cut in August to 3.35% would do well to read them.

Yet the minutes revealed inflation remains the big kahuna of the holding pattern - the board all but dismissed the volatile monthly read, and opines that inflation could pick up again as cost-of-living subsidies taper and housing costs grow strongly.

Steady as she goes

These are also the first minutes to be released now that the board's voting numbers are made public - 6-3 to those voting for a hold in July.

If anything, the nay and yea cases are perhaps outlined in a little more detail than the broadly consensus approach of past minutes.

It's revealed those calling for a cash rate cut were more concerned a slowing of the global economy and subdued GDP growth in Australia would see underlying inflation fall more rapidly than predicted.

But the anonymous majority ultimately believed the case for a hold was "the stronger one".

Perhaps it is this line that best sums up the prevailing mindset:

...lowering the cash rate a third time within the space of four meetings would be unlikely to be consistent with the strategy of easing monetary policy in a cautious and gradual manner to achieve the Board's inflation and full employment objectives.

All eyes now to next week's quarterly inflation data which, should the print come in lower than expected, will only embolden the 'told you so' case.

But amateur cash rate callers should be reminded the board does not baulk easily.


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