First home buyers don’t care much for the cash rate

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on October 18, 2019
First home buyers don’t care much for the cash rate

Photo by Maria Teneva on Unsplash

Home loan interest rates may be falling to new lows each month (or so it would seem), but this doesn’t seem to always have a positive effect on first homeowner activity, according to new research.

Analysis of Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) and Reserve Bank (RBA) data from PRD Nationwide shows recent first home buyer (FHB) activity has historically been somewhat independent of recent cash rate movements, although there has been a slight uptick in recent approved loans to first-time buyers.

Previous cash rate movements in 2015 and 2016 actually saw first home buyer numbers go backwards, while FHB activity fluctuated between July 2016 and May 2019 when the cash rate was held at 1.50%.

This, according to PRD’s research, was due to factors such as:

  • Income tax policy
  • Political uncertainty
  • The tightening of lending policies
Period Cash rate First Home Buyers Change in FHBs
(vs previous month)
Feb-15 2.25% 7,899 0.0%
May-15 2.00% 7,735 -1.2%
May-16 1.75% 7,534 -1.1%
Aug-16 1.50% 7,173 -1.4%
Jun-19 1.25% 9,054 1.4%
Jul-19 1.00% 9,149 1.0%

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Reserve Bank of Australia. Prepared by PRDnationwide Research.

As the data shows, the number of loans to FHBs increased by 1.4% from May to June and a further 1.0% from June to July, when there were two consecutive 25 basis point cuts to the cash rate.

In previous instances where the cash rate was lowered there were actually sizeable falls in the number of FHBs compared to previous months.

For example, the most significant decline in first-home buyers in line with a rate cut was in August 2016, when activity recorded a monthly decline of 1.4%.

The RBA slashed the rate to 1.5% that month, and this was the last time the cash rate was changed until June this year.

“Overall, a further cash rate cut does not guarantee more FHB activity, as it is not the only factor in FHB’s decision making,” the report said.

ABS cash rate

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Reserve Bank of Australia. Prepared by PRDnationwide Research.

The most recent RBA data for August (released in October) shows a major increase in the number of first home buyers, with the number of lending commitments to owner-occupier first home buyers rising 5.2% month-on-month.

This means the FHB market share is now just over 30% of the housing market – a near eight-year high.

“First home buyers now account for 30.1% of the total market, the highest share since the start of 2012, so continued growth in this segment is important for the broader housing market,” HIA Economist Tom Devitt said following the ABS’s release.

“Given the lag between loan applications and final approval, it is likely that the full effects of recent stimulus is yet to play out in the data and will provide further support to the market as the year progresses.”

Read more: Which lenders have cut rates in October?

First Home Loan Deposit Scheme gets the green light

The First Home Loan Deposit Scheme was passed through both the house of representatives and the senate this week and will kick off on January 1 2020.

The scheme, which will provide a guarantee to eligible first home buyers to purchase a home with a deposit as low as 5%, will support 10,000 first home buyers each year.

Treasurer Josh Frydenberg and Minister for Housing and Assistant Treasurer Michael Sukkar said the passage of the scheme will “facilitate earlier access to home ownership for first home buyers”.

“The Government recognises that saving a deposit has become a more significant barrier to entering the housing market. It can take ten years for the average first home buyer to save a 20% deposit.”

Not everyone approves of this scheme however, with some questioning its effectiveness.

Grattan Institute’s household finances program director Brendan Coates said the scheme is too small to make much of a difference to homeownership rates for first home buyers.

“Because the Scheme is small – the Government intends to offer just 10,000 guarantees a year – it is unlikely to make much of a difference to homeownership rates for young Australians, or house prices,” Mr Coates said.

“It would push up prices, benefitting sellers at the expense of first home buyers, while increasing the risks of inappropriate lending at costs to both households and government.

“Because it costs the budget less, this latest Scheme is less bad than its predecessors. But it shares their critical flaw: it pretends we can make housing more affordable without hurting anyone.”

Looking for a low variable rate home loan? The table below displays owner-occupier products which may represent the best of the big four banks, best of the top 10 customer-owned banks and the best of the larger non-banks.

Lender

Variable
More details
UNLIMITED REDRAWSSPECIAL OFFER
  • Fast turnaround times, can meet 30-day settlement
  • For purchase and refinance, min 20% deposit
  • No ongoing or monthly fees, add offset for 0.10%
UNLIMITED REDRAWSSPECIAL OFFER

Smart Booster Home Loan Discounted Variable - 2yr (LVR < 80%)

  • Fast turnaround times, can meet 30-day settlement
  • For purchase and refinance, min 20% deposit
  • No ongoing or monthly fees, add offset for 0.10%
Variable
More details
100% FULL OFFSET ACCOUNTNO APPLICATION FEE OR ONGOING FEES
  • No upfront or ongoing fees
  • 100% full offset account
  • Extra repayments + redraw services
100% FULL OFFSET ACCOUNTNO APPLICATION FEE OR ONGOING FEES

Low Rate Home Loan - Prime (Principal and Interest) (Owner Occupied) (LVR < 60%)

  • No upfront or ongoing fees
  • 100% full offset account
  • Extra repayments + redraw services
Variable
More details
ZERO APPLICATION FEESFEE FREE OFFSET
  • We lower your rate based off how much you’ve paid down your loan
  • Automatic rate match
  • No upfront or ongoing fees
  • The shorter your loan, the less interest you pay in the long run.
ZERO APPLICATION FEESFEE FREE OFFSET

Owner Occupier Accelerates - Celebrate (LVR < 60%) (Principal and Interest)

  • We lower your rate based off how much you’ve paid down your loan
  • Automatic rate match
  • No upfront or ongoing fees
  • The shorter your loan, the less interest you pay in the long run.
Variable
More details
AN EASY DIGITAL APPLICATION
  • No ongoing fees - None!
  • Unlimited additional repayments
  • Easy online application, find out if you're approved quick!
  • Redraw- Access your additional payments if you need them
  • Use the app to get loan insights to help you pay off your home loan faster
AN EASY DIGITAL APPLICATION

Neat Variable Home Loan (Principal and Interest) (LVR < 60%)

  • No ongoing fees - None!
  • Unlimited additional repayments
  • Easy online application, find out if you're approved quick!
  • Redraw- Access your additional payments if you need them
  • Use the app to get loan insights to help you pay off your home loan faster
Variable
More details
NO APPLICATION FEES
  • No ongoing fees - None!
  • Unlimited additional repayments
  • Easy online application, find out if you're approved quick!
  • Redraw- Access your additional payments if you need them
  • Use the app to get loan insights to help you pay off your home loan faster
NO APPLICATION FEES

Yard Home Loan (Principal and Interest) (LVR < 80%)

  • No ongoing fees - None!
  • Unlimited additional repayments
  • Easy online application, find out if you're approved quick!
  • Redraw- Access your additional payments if you need them
  • Use the app to get loan insights to help you pay off your home loan faster
Variable
More details
NO UPFRONT OR ONGOING FEES
  • No ongoing fees - None!
  • Unlimited additional repayments
  • Easy online application, find out if you're approved quick!
  • Redraw- Access your additional payments if you need them
  • Use the app to get loan insights to help you pay off your home loan faster
NO UPFRONT OR ONGOING FEES

Owner Occupier Accelerates - Evaporate (LVR 60%-70%) (Principal and Interest)

  • No ongoing fees - None!
  • Unlimited additional repayments
  • Easy online application, find out if you're approved quick!
  • Redraw- Access your additional payments if you need them
  • Use the app to get loan insights to help you pay off your home loan faster
Variable
More details
NO UPFRONT OR ONGOING FEES
  • No ongoing fees - None!
  • Unlimited additional repayments
  • Easy online application, find out if you're approved quick!
  • Redraw- Access your additional payments if you need them
  • Use the app to get loan insights to help you pay off your home loan faster
NO UPFRONT OR ONGOING FEES

Low Rate Home Loan - Prime (Principal and Interest) (Owner Occupied) (LVR < 80%)

  • No ongoing fees - None!
  • Unlimited additional repayments
  • Easy online application, find out if you're approved quick!
  • Redraw- Access your additional payments if you need them
  • Use the app to get loan insights to help you pay off your home loan faster
Variable
More details
UNLIMITED EXTRA REPAYMENTS
UNLIMITED EXTRA REPAYMENTS

Basic Home Loan (Principal and Interest) (LVR < 60%)

    Variable
    More details
    EASY DIGITAL APPLICATION
    EASY DIGITAL APPLICATION

    Neat Variable Home Loan (Principal and Interest) (LVR 70%-80%)

      Variable
      More details
      $0 APPLICATION FEE
      $0 APPLICATION FEE

      Budget Home Loan (Principal and Interest) (LVR < 80%)

        Variable
        More details
        100% FULL OFFSET ACCOUNT
        100% FULL OFFSET ACCOUNT

        Offset Package Home Loan (Principal and Interest) (LVR < 60%)

          Variable
          More details
          LIMITED TIME OFFER
          • Fast turnaround times, can meet 30-day settlement
          • No ongoing or monthly fees, add offset for 0.10%
          • Extra repayments + redraw services
          LIMITED TIME OFFER

          Smart Booster Home Loan Discounted Variable - 1yr

          • Fast turnaround times, can meet 30-day settlement
          • No ongoing or monthly fees, add offset for 0.10%
          • Extra repayments + redraw services

          Base criteria of: a $400,000 loan amount, variable, fixed, principal and interest (P&I) home loans with an LVR (loan-to-value) ratio of at least 80%. However, the ‘Compare Home Loans’ table allows for calculations to be made on variables as selected and input by the user. All products will list the LVR with the product and rate which are clearly published on the Product Provider’s web site. Monthly repayments, once the base criteria are altered by the user, will be based on the selected products’ advertised rates and determined by the loan amount, repayment type, loan term and LVR as input by the user/you. *The Comparison rate is based on a $150,000 loan over 25 years. Warning: this comparison rate is true only for this example and may not include all fees and charges. Different terms, fees or other loan amounts might result in a different comparison rate. Rates correct as of June 27, 2022. View disclaimer.

          Investment lending soars

          The value of home loans taken out by investors has increased 11.6% in the three months ending August 2019, according to data from CoreLogic.

          This is the fastest rate of growth in investment lending since November 2016, although investor activity still remains 43% below its mid-2015 peak.

          CoreLogic head of research Tim Lawless said investors have been buoyed by the recent uptick in house prices and the removal of regulatory caps on investment credit.

          “More recently, housing market conditions have turned a corner, with values rising across five of the eight capital cities over the September quarter and three of the broad ‘rest of state’ region,” Mr Lawless said.

          “Looking forward, there is a strong likelihood that investor activity will increase further.

          “The long-term average shows investors are typically around one-third of mortgage demand, implying investors are currently under-represented in the market. 

          “As investment activity rises, we could see increased price pressures as this sector of the market tends to be more competitive in setting new price benchmarks.” 


          Disclaimers

          The entire market was not considered in selecting the above products. Rather, a cut-down portion of the market has been considered. Some providers' products may not be available in all states. To be considered, the product and rate must be clearly published on the product provider's web site. Savings.com.au, yourmortgage.com.au, yourinvestmentpropertymag.com.au, and Performance Drive are part of the Savings Media group. In the interests of full disclosure, the Savings Media Group are associated with the Firstmac Group. To read about how Savings Media Group manages potential conflicts of interest, along with how we get paid, please visit the web site links at the bottom of this page.

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          author-avatar
          William Jolly joined Savings.com.au as a Financial Journalist in 2018, after spending two years at financial research firm Canstar. In William's articles, you're likely to find complex financial topics and products broken down into everyday language. He is deeply passionate about improving the financial literacy of Australians and providing them with resources on how to save money in their everyday lives.

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