Capital city suburbs with the highest 10-year growth revealed

^{Photo by Simon Rae on Unsplash}

New research has lifted the lid on what suburbs in capital cities had the best average annual capital growth over the last ten years.

CoreLogic and the Property Investment Professionals of Australia (PIPA) identified Lakemba, in the Canterbury region of Sydney, as the capital city location with the highest annual growth in Australia over the past decade. 

Lakemba's house prices increased by 8.4% annually and its median house value more than doubled over the period to about $881,000. 

The second best performer was also in Sydney in the Oatlands-Dundas Valley region of Carlingford, where house values grew by an average 8.1% annually.

The median house value there skyrocketed from $662,000 to $1.41 million in that time.

Rounding out the podium finishers was Rockbank-Mount Cottrell in Melbourne's west, with a 7.9% annual average growth and an increase of almost $600,000 to its median house value. 

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PIPA chairman Peter Koulizos said many suburbs situated in capital cities that had been deemed subdued had still managed to record robust growth. 

“Even though Adelaide only recorded average annual growth of 1.3% over the past decade, its top performing location of Prospect saw prices increase by 3.4% per year over the period,” Mr Koulizos said.

“Likewise, in Darwin, where prices reduced on average 1.9% annually, in Rosebery-Bellamack median house values increased by 3.2% at the same time.

“This is actually quite common, because there are submarkets within markets which operate to the beat of their own drums, usually because of consistently strong demand from buyers keen to live or invest in those locations.”

Check out the top three performing suburbs for each capital city in the table below. 

Australian capital city suburb growth over the past decade 

Suburb	Average annual 10 year growth	Median house value 2020	Indexed median house value 2010
Sydney
Lakemba	8.4%	$881,444	$394,504
Oatlands-Dundas Valley	8.1%	$1,441,469	$662,302
Carlingford	7.8%	$1,545,664	$728,476
Melbourne
Rockbank-Mt Cottrell	7.9%	$598,268	$279,684
Doncaster East (South)	7.8%	$1,263,792	$593,735
Doncaster East (North)	7.5%	$1,306,834	$636,597
Brisbane
Robertson	3.7%	$1,019,930	$710,160
Tarragindi	3.6%	$813,738	$571,106
New Farm	3.5%	$1,340,392	$950,745
Adelaide
Prospect	3.4%	$751,346	$536,483
North Adelaide	3.3%	$989,911	$718,831
Nailsworth-Broadview	3.2%	$708,291	$516,968
Canberra
Casey	6.4%	$698,870	$375,568
Crace	5.8%	$808,285	$460,134
Forde	5.5%	$818,003	$477,091
Hobart
Bridgewater-Gagebrook	5.2%	$259,149	$156,164
Rokeby	5.0%	$329,901	$203,001
West Moonah	4.6%	$453,731	$290,399
Perth
Riverton-Shelley-Rossmoyne	0.6%	$750,307	$708,846
Willetton	0.5%	$690,546	$659,639
Perth City	0.0%	$831,562	$834,140
Darwin
Rosebery-Bellamack	3.2%	$517,780	$377,709
Palmerston-South	1.6%	$435,544	$370,459
Rapid Creek	-0.6%	$591,065	$624,617

Source: PIPA, CoreLogic.

Which capital city performed best? 

Unsurprisingly, the research found Sydney and Melbourne recorded the highest average annual growth at 5.5% and 4.9% respectively, followed by Hobart at 3.4%. 

Mr Koulizos said the other capital cities recorded less than stellar average housing value growth rates over the past decade. 

“Annual growth of between 1.3% to 2.8% over the past decade is part of the reason why so many investors and property investment experts are eyeing Brisbane, Adelaide and Canberra as potentially having the best capital growth prospects over the next 10-year period,” he said. 

Darwin and Perth felt the hangover from the end of the mining boom, recording negative annual growth over the period of -1.9% and -1.4% respectively. 

CoreLogic Head of Research Tim Lawless said the research demonstrated the long-term nature of property investment. 

“Investing in the housing market is typically a long-term strategy," he said. 

"Short-term movements are less important than the longer-term trends, which typically see housing values moving through a cycle where values will rise, fall and track sideways.”

“The past 10 years has seen areas of Sydney and Melbourne outperform most other markets thanks to strong economic conditions and high rates of migration, which has fuelled housing demand, however, such high rates of capital gain have eroded housing affordability and compressed rental yields.”

Mr Lawless said it was likely the best performing markets over the coming decade would differ greatly from the previous ones. 

“Just as they were over the earlier decade where, for example, mining regions and regional coastal markets were some of the strongest performing areas."

Australian capital city growth over the past decade 

City location	State	Average annual 10-year growth
Greater Sydney	NSW	5.5%
Greater Melbourne	VIC	4.9%
Greater Brisbane	QLD	1.3%
Greater Adelaide	SA	1.5%
Greater Perth	WA	-1.4%
Greater Hobart	TAS	3.4%
Greater Darwin	NT	-1.9%
Australian Capital Territory	ACT	2.8%

Source: PIPA, CoreLogic.

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Disclaimers

The entire market was not considered in selecting the above products. Rather, a cut-down portion of the market has been considered which includes retail products from at least the big four banks, the top 10 customer-owned institutions and Australia’s larger non-banks:

• The big four banks are: ANZ, CBA, NAB and Westpac
• The top 10 customer-owned Institutions are the ten largest mutual banks, credit unions and building societies in Australia, ranked by assets under management in November 2020. They are (in descending order): Credit Union Australia, Newcastle Permanent, Heritage Bank, Peoples’ Choice Credit Union, Teachers Mutual Bank, Greater Bank, IMB Bank, Beyond Bank, Bank Australia and P&N Bank.
• The larger non-bank lenders are those who (in 2020) has more than $9 billion in Australian funded loans and advances. These groups are: Resimac, Pepper, Liberty and Firstmac.
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Some providers' products may not be available in all states. To be considered, the product and rate must be clearly published on the product provider's web site.

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*Comparison rate is based on a loan of $150,000 over a term of 25 years. Please note the comparison rate only applies to the examples given. Different loan amounts and terms will result in different comparison rates. Costs such as redraw fees and costs savings, such as fee waivers, are not included in the comparison rate but may influence the cost of the loan.

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