CoreLogic's latest Mapping the Market data revealed Sydney property prices have fallen 1.9% in the four weeks to 24 July, with Melbourne and Brisbane following suit with falls of 1.2% and 0.9% respectively.
Further, 41.9% of all house and unit markets analysed by CoreLogic in the June quarter declined in value compared to the 23.6% of markets that recorded a fall in value in the March quarter.
CoreLogic Economist Kaytlin Ezzy said the updated data showed a significant uptick in the proportion of declining markets compared to March, when values were falling predominantly in Sydney and Melbourne markets.
“This analysis captures two of the three recent rate hikes so it’s not surprising to see the added downward pressure has had a broader impact on the housing market,” Ms Ezzy said.
“Signs of a slowdown and falls in value were already evident before the rate rises, but are now becoming more widespread across Sydney and Melbourne, and beginning to impact the more expensive areas of Brisbane, Canberra and Hobart."
CoreLogic notes since the February peak, Sydney housing values are down -4.4%, with -3.8% of the total decline occurring since the RBA's cash rate hike in May.
The Melbourne market has shown a similar pattern, down -2.6% over the June quarter which comprises the bulk of the current -2.8% decline since February.
AMP Chief Economist Shane Oliver expects a 15-20% top to bottom fall in Australian property prices, with -20% in Sydney, assuming the cash rate peaks around 2.6%.
"But money market expectations for a ~3.5% cash rate could push this to a 25-30% fall," Mr Oliver said.
So far the decline in Aust property prices just looks like a flick off the top. But the speed of the decline so early in an RBA rate tightening cycle reflects the sensitivity (due to high household debt levels) of the property mkt to (rapidly) rising mortgage rates….#ausecon pic.twitter.com/jrUnHhdakL
— Shane Oliver (@ShaneOliverAMP) July 23, 2022
PRD Chief Economist Dr Diaswati Mardiasmo said it is not a surprise that Sydney is seeing a downturn in its market, considering how high median property prices climbed over the past 12-24 months.
"That said, if you consider how much Sydney has climbed up, a 1.9% downturn is mild, and would benefit both buyers and sellers," Dr Mardiasmo told Savings.com.au.
"Buyers have a higher affordability level, although some would argue that Sydney prices are still out of reach; and sellers can still capitalise from their investment.
"At the end of the day property is a long term game, so if you have held your property for say 7-10 years and selling now, but losing out on 1.9%, you would still be benefiting from your investment."
Auction clearance rates tumble
Despite recent data from PropTrack revealing June 2022 marked the busiest period for new property listings since 2011, auction clearance rates were substantially lower.
CoreLogic's quarterly Auction Market Review report revealed 60.8% of reported auctions were successful in the June quarter, down 14.9% from the same period last year.
CoreLogic notes this marks the lowest clearance rate for any quarterly period since September 2020 at 59.2%.
CoreLogic Research Director Tim Lawless said the latest results continue to highlight tougher selling conditions as interest rates rise and consumer sentiment remains low.
“The trend towards lower clearance rates has been most visible in Sydney and Melbourne, where housing values are now falling and advertised stock levels are back to above average levels, however clearance rates are also trending lower in stronger markets like Brisbane and Adelaide," Mr Lawless said.
“Seasonally the number of auctions held in winter normally trends lower, however it’s possible this could be amplified this year as the housing market moves into a downturn."
Image by Laura Cros via Unsplash
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