Prices nationally climbed another 0.3% last month, lifting the Home Price Index 2.73% year-to-date, according to the latest PropTrack data.

The continuing rise sees national home prices jump 6.68% since May 2023, with prices in the combined capital cities hitting a new peak last month.

Capital city property prices are now up 7.22% over the past year although the pace of price growth has slowed in every capital since the end of summer.

Perth leads the way

Perth has recorded a 0.73% jump in May, ahead of Brisbane (+0.67%) and Adelaide (+0.53%).

Perth home prices have now grown by more than 20% in a year, followed by Adelaide (+14.49%) and Brisbane (+13.69%).

The capital cities have outpaced the regions in the past year with regional prices remaining relatively flat in May.

Capital cities data is outlined in the table below:

All dwellings Monthly growth Annual growth Change from peak Change since March 2020 Median value
Sydney 0.42% 7.01% At peak 37.0% $1,101,000
Melbourne 0.23% 0.87% -3.08% 17.5% $806,000
Brisbane 0.67% 13.39% At peak 68.0% $834,000
Adelaide 0.53% 14.49% At peak 68.5% $748,000
Perth 0.73% 20.58% At peak 64.3% $699,000
Hobart -0.13% -1.93% -8.97% 34.9% $674,000
Darwin 0.25% 1.38% -1.34% 27.4% $486,000
ACT -0.21% 1.23% -4.58% 36.9% $834,000
Capital cities 0.41% 7.22% At peak 37.6% $851,000

Source: PropTrack

Supply squeeze

PropTrack senior economist Eleanor Creagh said with housing supply unable to meet demand, national home prices have now cycled through 17 consecutive months of growth to hit a new high.

"Despite a rise in the number of homes for sale this year, strong population growth, tight rental markets, and home equity gains continue to bolster strong demand," she said.

"Meanwhile, building activity remains challenged by capacity constraints and higher costs, with consequent tight housing supply pushing prices and rents higher."

Where will it all end?

Ms Creagh said the mismatch between supply and demand is continuing to drive price rises despite the higher interest rate environment that has historically been linked price decreases.

"Current interest rate stability has sustained buyer and seller confidence, while ongoing home price rises are likely incentivising many to overcome affordability challenges and transact with the expectation of further growth."

For prospective buyers, Ms Creagh doesn't see any turnaround in home prices in the months ahead.

"It's likely the pace of growth will continue slowing through the seasonally quieter winter period, particularly with the interest rate cut expectations pushed out to late 2025."

The big four banks are all predicting the first cut to the cash rate, currently at 4.35%, to be in November this year.

But the latest CPI data, released on Wednesday, showed the annual rate of inflation ticked up to 3.6% in April, up from 3.5% in March and 3.4% in February.

It's fuelled speculation interest rate cuts may be further away than forecast.


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