Overseas migration may be 'final straw' for real estate market

author-avatar By
on February 24, 2022 Fact Checked
Overseas migration may be 'final straw' for real estate market

CoreLogic has predicted a 'slow' return of overseas migration and subsequent demand for housing, but one property expert is pointing to some red flags.

Australia's international border opened on 21 February 2022 to double-vaccinated tourists and visa holders after nearly two years of the border being closed.

The latest overseas arrival data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) revealed total arrivals to Australia started rising 'sharply' weeks earlier.

Specifically, short-term arrivals 'dominated' Australia's new arrivals in December 2021, despite being equal to only around 10.4% of arrivals in December 2019 according to CoreLogic.

Of the December 2021 arrivals, 34% intend to stay less than one month, 52.5% said they would stay for one to six months, and 13.6% would stay between six to 12 months.

Eliza Owen, Head of Research Australia at CoreLogic, said the return of overseas migration and housing demand is expected to be 'slow', and that many of the most impacted markets have seen a 'recovery trend' since early last year.

"[This recovery is] thanks to relatively affordable rents, a decline in total listings, and more recently, temporary migrants such as university students and visitors," Ms Owen said.

"While priorities for entry to Australia at the end of 2021 were focused on returning Australian citizens and their relations - which could see people staying with friends or relatives - there will no doubt start to be an increase in demand for short-term accommodation."

She said that in terms of the 'high' portion of student visa entrants, rental demand for this cohort will be 'concentrated'.

"Rental demand from this cohort of migrants is likely to be most concentrated across the inner city precincts of the capital cities and within close proximity to academic hubs," Ms Owen said.

Opposing the idea migration will be 'slow' is Propertyology's Head of Research, Simon Pressley, who said Australia has always been a 'major importer' of overseas migration.

"With 230,000 new jobs currently available but not filled, there has arguably never been a more important time for overseas intake of skilled labour," Mr Pressley told Savings.com.au.

"Contrary to widespread general perceptions, there has never been a direct link between overseas migration volumes and property values. It’s merely one of umpteen factors that influence property values."

'Seriously fearful' about how international border reopening will affect rental markets

Mr Pressley said he's 'seriously fearful' of the consequences of the border reopening to an extra 200,000 when Australia "already does not have enough rental accommodation for our existing residents".

"People with good jobs and strong rental histories are already living in caravans and tents because there’s no vacancies," Mr Pressley said.

"Tensions are already high. What next, civil unrest?"

He said there is 'no rental supply available'.

"This supply crisis was created by a series of poor policies," Mr Pressley said.

"It’s intensely frustrating that the d***heads in high places who created this crisis still don’t understand that a baseball bat to the head of those Australians who supply 85% of the national rental pool does the opposite of creating more rental supply."

Mr Pressley said that over the last decade, around 65% of Australia's total overseas arrivals settled in just two cities: Sydney and Melbourne.

"Moving forward, Propertyology anticipates the rest of Australia will receive a bigger share of population from overseas migrants," he said.


Advertisement

Buying an investment property or looking to refinance? The table below features home loans with some of the lowest interest rates on the market for investors.

Lender

Variable
More details
GREAT INTEREST RATE
  • Option to add an offset for 0.10%
  • No monthly or ongoing fees
  • Unlimited redraws
GREAT INTEREST RATE

Smart Booster Investor Bundle (Principal and Interest)

  • Option to add an offset for 0.10%
  • No monthly or ongoing fees
  • Unlimited redraws
Variable
More details
GET APPROVED FASTER WITH A DIGITAL APPLICATION
  • Split Loan Option
  • Unlimited additional repayments
  • Free redraw facility
GET APPROVED FASTER WITH A DIGITAL APPLICATION

Neat Variable Investment Loan (Principal and Interest) (LVR < 60%)

  • Split Loan Option
  • Unlimited additional repayments
  • Free redraw facility
Variable
More details
BUNDLE YOUR HOME LOAN AND YOUR INVESTMENT LOAN FOR MORE SAVINGS
  • Split Loan Option
  • Unlimited additional repayments
  • Free redraw facility
BUNDLE YOUR HOME LOAN AND YOUR INVESTMENT LOAN FOR MORE SAVINGS

Yard Investor Bundle Loan (Bundled with Home Loan)

  • Split Loan Option
  • Unlimited additional repayments
  • Free redraw facility
Variable
More details
100% FULL OFFSET ACCOUNT
  • Free redraw facility
  • Split account option
  • Unlimited extra repayments
100% FULL OFFSET ACCOUNT

Ocean Investment (Amounts < $1m, LVR < 60%)

  • Free redraw facility
  • Split account option
  • Unlimited extra repayments

Base criteria of: a $400,000 loan amount, variable, fixed, principal and interest (P&I) home loans with an LVR (loan-to-value) ratio of at least 80%. However, the ‘Compare Home Loans’ table allows for calculations to be made on variables as selected and input by the user. All products will list the LVR with the product and rate which are clearly published on the Product Provider’s web site. Monthly repayments, once the base criteria are altered by the user, will be based on the selected products’ advertised rates and determined by the loan amount, repayment type, loan term and LVR as input by the user/you. *The Comparison rate is based on a $150,000 loan over 25 years. Warning: this comparison rate is true only for this example and may not include all fees and charges. Different terms, fees or other loan amounts might result in a different comparison rate. Rates correct as of May 26, 2022. View disclaimer.


Photo by Belle Co from Pexels

Disclaimers

The entire market was not considered in selecting the above products. Rather, a cut-down portion of the market has been considered. Some providers' products may not be available in all states. To be considered, the product and rate must be clearly published on the product provider's web site. Savings.com.au, yourmortgage.com.au, yourinvestmentpropertymag.com.au, and Performance Drive are part of the Savings Media group. In the interests of full disclosure, the Savings Media Group are associated with the Firstmac Group. To read about how Savings Media Group manages potential conflicts of interest, along with how we get paid, please visit the web site links at the bottom of this page.

Latest Articles

author-avatar
Rachel is a Finance Journalist, and joined Savings in 2021. Coming from a background in the FinTech space, her interests include the innovation of lending technology, property, investing, and more. With a passion for educating and informing people about their finances, she hopes to increase the financial literacy of everyday Australians.

Be Savings smart.
Subscribe for free money newsletters.

By subscribing you agree
to the Savings Privacy Policy