Amid a cacophony of cash rate commentary and forecasts, the major banks have pencilled in one or more rate rises in 2022, while others such as AMP have forecast the cash rate to rise as early as June.

Inflation is a bigger talking point in the RBA's monetary policy statement than previously.

"Inflation has increased sharply in many parts of the world," RBA Governor Dr Philip Lowe said.

"But it remains lower than in many other countries; in underlying terms, inflation is 2.6% and in headline terms it is 3.5%.

"Higher prices for petrol and other commodities will result in a further lift in inflation over coming quarters, with an updated set of forecasts to be published in May.

"Over coming months, important additional evidence will be available to the board on both inflation and the evolution of labour costs.

"The board will assess this and other incoming information as its sets policy to support full employment in Australia and inflation outcomes consistent with the target."

The ABS' CPI inflation measurement for March will be released 27 April.


RBA Governor Dr Philip Lowe previously said board members are prepared to be "patient" as they monitor inflation, unemployment and wage price levels, and the war in Ukraine.

The latest statement has since seen 'patient' dropped from the nomenclature. 

CreditorWatch chief economist Anneke Thompson said a cash rate rise is "imminent".

"While inflation is a key target for the RBA, full employment is another. Having just reached full, or close to full employment, it’s highly unlikely the RBA will choose to threaten this status by raising the cash rate too quickly," Ms Thompson said.

"A steady approach is a more likely scenario, with small rises spaced out as the RBA monitors the impact of each rate rise as they occur."


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