As the residential sales market prepares to heat up for spring of 2021, lockdowns in ACT, Greater Melbourne, NSW, and most recently NT are set to challenge the norm according to new CoreLogic data.

In 'normal' market conditions, September to November would see a spike in both listings and sales.

However, housing market performance through lockdowns usually means a fall in sale and listing volumes.

Seasonal impacts on price are usually 'fairly marginal', as buyer demand increases in line with property supply.

In pre-covid market conditions, new listings rose 15.7% in spring compared to other seasons.

Sales volumes, on the other hand, typically remain 'stagnant' with around 40,000 transactions each spring over the last decade, compared to 37,500 across the full decade average.

Capital cities tend to see the biggest seasonal impact on the market, particularly in Sydney and the ACT.

Average Sales Spring.jpg

Source: CoreLogic

Melbourne already trending south

Melbourne's market activity is already on the decline amid the most recent lockdown.

Last year, Greater Melbourne had restrictions in place from the winter selling season into the spring selling season.

Throughout this period, newly advertised properties dropped significantly.

The table below shows the monthly count of new listings on the market throughout 2020, 2021 so far, and the previous five-year average.

Melbourne Sales.jpg

Source: CoreLogic

What will spring selling season look like this year?

Melbourne's lockdown during spring of last year lead to a 'substantial' reduction in new listings.

At its lowest, new listings added to market were 80.7% below the five-year average for the region.

CoreLogic forecasts a fall in market activity across Melbourne, the ACT, and NSW throughout the duration of each respective lockdown in place.

This is from observing the housing market performance throughout previous lockdowns, which revealed both declines in listing volumes and sales.

CoreLogic refers to a few key factors that contributed to depleted listings during lockdowns last year: low levels of consumer confidence; mortgage repayment deferrals and government household support; and roadblocks like virtual inspections and lockdowns.

Consumer confidence rose 1.5% in July, holding up despite ongoing lockdowns throughout the country.

Additionally, mortgage deferrals for most major banks have declined, and government support is in place in NSW for lockdown-affected households.

Image by Pat Whelen on Unsplash

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