Rents to skyrocket in 2021: Propertyology

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on December 07, 2020
Rents to skyrocket in 2021: Propertyology

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New analysis has forecast an all-time record high increase in household rents next year, amid an extreme shortage of accommodation.

Buyer's agency Propertyology found even prior to COVID-19 most of Australia had an under-supply of housing, with five out of eight capital cities now seeing vacancy rates below 1%.

Buying a home or looking to refinance? The table below features home loans with some of the lowest interest rates on the market for owner occupiers.

Lender

Variable
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UNLIMITED REDRAWSSPECIAL OFFER
  • Fast turnaround times, can meet 30-day settlement
  • For purchase and refinance, min 20% deposit
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UNLIMITED REDRAWSSPECIAL OFFER

Smart Booster Home Loan Discounted Variable - 2yr (LVR < 80%)

  • Fast turnaround times, can meet 30-day settlement
  • For purchase and refinance, min 20% deposit
  • No ongoing or monthly fees, add offset for 0.10%
Variable
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AN EASY DIGITAL APPLICATION
  • No ongoing fees - None!
  • Unlimited additional repayments
  • Easy online application, find out if you're approved quick!
  • Redraw- Access your additional payments if you need them
  • Use the app to get loan insights to help you pay off your home loan faster
AN EASY DIGITAL APPLICATION

Neat Variable Home Loan (Principal and Interest) (LVR < 60%)

  • No ongoing fees - None!
  • Unlimited additional repayments
  • Easy online application, find out if you're approved quick!
  • Redraw- Access your additional payments if you need them
  • Use the app to get loan insights to help you pay off your home loan faster
Variable
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100% FULL OFFSET ACCOUNTNO APPLICATION FEE OR ONGOING FEES
  • No upfront or ongoing fees
  • 100% full offset account
  • Extra repayments + redraw services
100% FULL OFFSET ACCOUNTNO APPLICATION FEE OR ONGOING FEES

Low Rate Home Loan - Prime (Principal and Interest) (Owner Occupied) (LVR < 60%)

  • No upfront or ongoing fees
  • 100% full offset account
  • Extra repayments + redraw services
Variable
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NSW/VIC/SA METRO & INNER REGIONAL AREAS$5000 CASHBACK. T&Cs APPLY.
  • No upfront or ongoing fees
  • 100% full offset account
  • Extra repayments + redraw services
NSW/VIC/SA METRO & INNER REGIONAL AREAS$5000 CASHBACK. T&Cs APPLY.

Variable Home Loan (Principal and Interest)

  • No upfront or ongoing fees
  • 100% full offset account
  • Extra repayments + redraw services

Base criteria of: a $400,000 loan amount, variable, fixed, principal and interest (P&I) home loans with an LVR (loan-to-value) ratio of at least 80%. However, the ‘Compare Home Loans’ table allows for calculations to be made on variables as selected and input by the user. All products will list the LVR with the product and rate which are clearly published on the Product Provider’s web site. Monthly repayments, once the base criteria are altered by the user, will be based on the selected products’ advertised rates and determined by the loan amount, repayment type, loan term and LVR as input by the user/you. *The Comparison rate is based on a $150,000 loan over 25 years. Warning: this comparison rate is true only for this example and may not include all fees and charges. Different terms, fees or other loan amounts might result in a different comparison rate. Rates correct as of May 29, 2022. View disclaimer.

Propertyology Head of Research Simon Pressley said their claim was in contrast to the majority who thought little to no overseas migration would cause a downturn in the Australian property market. 

"The reality is that Australia does not have enough housing supply for its existing 25.6 million population," Mr Pressley said.

"Propertyology is predicting that these next couple of years will produce the biggest increase in rents that Australia has seen in living memory.

"To secure a standard rental property over the next couple of years, it will not be uncommon for households to need to find an extra $2,000 to $5,000 per annum."

Sydney and Melbourne are a stark contrast to the rest of Australia, currently sporting a surplus of rental stock and falling rents. 

Propertyology found as at the end of October 2020, there was a combined 53,525 dwellings advertised for rent for Sydney and Melbourne’s combined population of 10.5 million people.

The remaining 15.1 million are competing for just 20,696 dwellings in the other six capitals and increasingly popular regional locations.

prophighrents01

Mr Pressley said the pandemic couldn't be blamed for everything, with the demand for housing in Sydney and Melbourne simply shifting to other locations. 

"Fact: It is becoming standard practice for property managers in every corner of the country to frequently receive numerous applications to rent a standard house," he said.

"The intense pressure affords property managers the luxury of being particularly fussy when assessing the quality of tenant applications.

"Propertyology’s buyer’s agents have seen firsthand proof of multi-offer tenant applications and the successful tenant paying $50 to $70 per week above the market’s median rent. It’s a frenzy."

He added the rock-bottom vacancy rates weren't confined to the capital cities. 

"From Maitland NSW, to Margaret River WA, Mount Gambier SA, Mackay QLD, and Mildura VIC, Propertyology is tracking an additional 50 individual towns across Australia with vacancy rates below 1%," he said. 

"It is the tightest rental conditions that Australia has ever seen. Anyone who forecast a downturn clearly has no clue what ‘housing demand’ truly means."

See also: What's in store for struggling renters in 2021? (In-depth)

Good news for investors 

According to data by SQM Research, Canberra ($648 per week), Sydney ($638) and Darwin ($580) have the highest capital city advertised medians rents for houses.

Hobart rents have increased the most over the last decade, although they are still relatively affordable at $456 per week.

However, the biggest rent increases over the last decade have been seen outside of the capitals, with the shift to working from home likely to accelerate this trend.

prophighrents02

Mr Pressley said rental supply was 98% determined by mum-and-dad investors, and decisions from the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) had stifled this channel.

"The primary reason for Australia’s current rental supply crisis is traced back to a series of decisions between 2015 and 2019 by the banking regulator to restrain the activity mum-and-dad investors," he said. 

"Property investors were active participants during Sydney and Melbourne’s last boom, ending in 2017.

"But APRA’s credit tightening policies were applied with a broad brush that, instead of two cities, affected all of Australia."

What's the solution? 

Mr Pressley said the rental supply crisis was only going to get worse before it got better. 

He said there must be support for mum-and-dad investors, and outlined five ways to kickstart recovery: 

  • APRA must treat adults as adults and introduce a credit policy which supports responsible borrowers. Moreover, they must be proactive in helping to improve loan application efficiencies. With modern technology and so much information at the banks' fingertips, it beggars belief that something which could be approved within a couple of days 30-years ago today takes a few weeks.
  • Banks must stop charging investors a premium interest rate.
  • State governments must stop charging investors higher stamp duty and placing a wad of moratoriums and restrictions on what an owner can do with their asset.
  • City councils must stop charging investors a premium on council rates.
  • The federal government must conduct a serious investigation into the conduct of insurance companies. From charging excessive insurance premiums to hiding behind fine print when a policyholder makes a claim, rorting of real estate products is a national problem.

Disclaimers

The entire market was not considered in selecting the above products. Rather, a cut-down portion of the market has been considered. Some providers' products may not be available in all states. To be considered, the product and rate must be clearly published on the product provider's web site. Savings.com.au, yourmortgage.com.au, yourinvestmentpropertymag.com.au, and Performance Drive are part of the Savings Media group. In the interests of full disclosure, the Savings Media Group are associated with the Firstmac Group. To read about how Savings Media Group manages potential conflicts of interest, along with how we get paid, please visit the web site links at the bottom of this page.

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Alex joined Savings.com.au as a finance journalist in 2019. He enjoys covering in-depth economical releases and breaking down how they might affect the everyday punter. He is passionate about providing Australians with the information and tools needed to make them financially stable for their futures.

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