Photo by Tarryn Myburgh on Unsplash
New data has identified the top ten danger zones for high settlement and cash flow risk for units.
The analysis from RiskWise Property Research, seen in the table below, found the riskiest areas in the country in terms of oversupply, based not only on the supply itself but also on low demand for rental apartments in relation to that supply.
State |
Postcode |
Suburb |
New units next 24 months |
New units next 24 months as % of units |
VIC |
3000 |
Melbourne |
4,744 |
13.6 |
VIC |
3008 |
Docklands |
1,307 |
12.0 |
NSW |
2020 |
Mascot |
804 |
13.3 |
NSW |
2155 |
Rouse Hill |
1,661 |
200.4 |
NSW |
2150 |
Parramatta |
1,553 |
13.2 |
NSW |
2250 |
Gosford |
1,859 |
72.9 |
NT |
800 |
Darwin |
1,204 |
32.0 |
QLD |
4101 |
West End |
1,211 |
26.0 |
QLD |
4217 |
Surfers Paradise |
2,799 |
14.0 |
SA |
5000 |
Adelaide |
1,266 |
12.9 |
Source: RiskWise Property Research
RiskWise chief executive Doron Peleg said property investors should be extra cautious of the high degree of risk associated with off-the-plan units, which has been heightened as a result of COVID-19.
Additionally, the equity risk has also been heightened, with investor activity lower and the media spotlight on the faults of high rise apartments increasing their awareness of the risks, increasing the risk of price reduction.
The pandemic has also increased the cash flow risk, with SQM Research data revealing vacancy rates were at all-time high in May at 16.2%, and dropping slightly to 13.8% in June.
Looking to compare low-rate, variable home loans? Below are a handful of low-rate loans in the market.

Smart Booster Home Loan
Product Features
- Discount variable for 1 year <=80% LVR
- No ongoing fees
- Unlimited redraw facility
Monthly repayments: $1,476
Advertised
Rate (p.a.)
1.99%
Comparison
Rate (p.a.)
2.47%
Product Features
- Discount variable for 1 year
- No ongoing fees
- Unlimited redraw facility
Base criteria of: a $400,000 loan amount, variable, principal and interest (P&I) home loans with an LVR (loan-to-value) ratio of at least 80%. If products listed have an LVR <80%, they will be clearly identified in the product name along with the specific LVR. The product and rate must be clearly published on the Product Provider’s web site. Monthly repayments were calculated based on the selected products’ advertised rates, applied to a $400,000 loan with a 30-year loan term.
Pete Wargent, co-founder of buyer's agency Buyers Buyers, said off the plan unit purchases carried a high level of risk of significant price reductions.
"Areas with high unit oversupply carry ‘a very high risk’ and this is still a major issue in some property markets, for example in Melbourne’s CBD, while the same city simultaneously has an under-supply of family-appropriate properties,” Mr Wargent said.
Mr Peleg of RiskWise said the high-profile issues around cladding and defects has created enormous ‘reputational damage’ across the entire industry and because of this, investors had lost interest in high-rise unit developments and were turning to “safer” house-and-land packages suitable for families.
Buyer’s agent and chief executive of propertybuyer.com.au Rich Harvey said buying new apartments in outer suburban areas like Rouse Hill made no sense.
“While it may be nice to have a shiny new kitchen and bathroom, there is a significant downside price risk as the supply of land for further development is plentiful," Mr Harvey said.
"Investors and home buyers are far better off seeking apartments in locations where land supply is very low and demand for property high.
“In a market where prices are declining, there is a settlement risk for the buyer if they discover that the value paid for the unit has declined significantly."
“Say the purchase price was $650,000 some two years ago, but at settlement the bank valuation came in at $585,000 (i.e. 10% lower), then the purchaser has to find an additional $65,000 to settle the property. This could be a serious problem for some cash-strapped buyers.”
Mr Harvey recommended seeking independent advice and guidance from a local expert buyer’s agent who understood the dynamics of the local property market.
Disclaimers
The entire market was not considered in selecting the above products. Rather, a cut-down portion of the market has been considered which includes retail products from at least the big four banks, the top 10 customer-owned institutions and Australia’s larger non-banks:
- The big four banks are: ANZ, CBA, NAB and Westpac
- The top 10 customer-owned Institutions are the ten largest mutual banks, credit unions and building societies in Australia, ranked by assets under management in November 2020. They are (in descending order): Credit Union Australia, Newcastle Permanent, Heritage Bank, Peoples’ Choice Credit Union, Teachers Mutual Bank, Greater Bank, IMB Bank, Beyond Bank, Bank Australia and P&N Bank.
- The larger non-bank lenders are those who (in 2020) has more than $9 billion in Australian funded loans and advances. These groups are: Resimac, Pepper, Liberty and Firstmac.
Some providers' products may not be available in all states. To be considered, the product and rate must be clearly published on the product provider's web site.
In the interests of full disclosure, Savings.com.au, Performance Drive and Loans.com.au are part of the Firstmac Group. To read about how Savings.com.au manages potential conflicts of interest, along with how we get paid, please click through onto the web site links.
*Comparison rate is based on a loan of $150,000 over a term of 25 years. Please note the comparison rate only applies to the examples given. Different loan amounts and terms will result in different comparison rates. Costs such as redraw fees and costs savings, such as fee waivers, are not included in the comparison rate but may influence the cost of the loan.
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