Westpac joins NAB in forecasting an October RBA rate cut

author-avatar By on September 23, 2020
Westpac joins NAB in forecasting an October RBA rate cut

Photo by Vladimir Haltakov on Unsplash

Westpac is forecasting a cash rate cut in October of 15 basis points, which would take the rate to a record low 0.10%.

Westpac joins fellow big four bank NAB in revising its forecast, with NAB predicting the Reserve Bank of Australi (RBA) will cut in either October or November. 

In light of comments made by RBA Deputy Governor Guy Debelle on Tuesday, Westpac chief economist Bill Evans said he expected the central bank to cut. 

"In a speech yesterday the Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank gave a fairly clear hint that the Board is set to cut the cash rate and other key policy rates at its October Board meeting," Mr Evans said. 

"The theme is likely to be, as we saw in March, a Team Australia moment where the Reserve Bank is directly supporting a bold Federal Budget.

"The prospect of the RBA “sitting back” to assess the Budget, which has been seen as the “norm” in previous years is not appropriate for these unique times." 

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VariableMore details
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Rates correct as of October 17, 2021. View disclaimer.

Addressing the Australian Industry Group yesterday, Dr Debelle said the central bank's support package could be altered to further assist the country out of recession. 

"As the outlook for the Australian economy unfolds, the Board will continue to assess the merits of the range of monetary options to best support the economic recovery." Dr Debelle said.

While NAB economists have forecasted either an October or November rate cut, Mr Evans said there was no reason for the RBA to hold fire until later in the year. 

"It is the medium term projection that the unemployment rate is still likely to be around 7% by the end of 2022 – the Deputy Governor refers to a 'slow grind' – and that the shortfall in demand will be 'a significant break on the recovery'," he said. 

"That outlook is unlikely to change in the November forecast revisions, hence no real case can be made to 'wait'."

Mr Evans said Dr Debelle's speech demonstrated the RBA's concern for the outlook of the economy, and where previous speeches had put emphasis on fiscal stimulus, this speech had focussed mainly on RBA policy.

"He [Dr Debelle] notes that the Bank’s current forecast is that the unemployment rate will still be above 7% by the end of 2022," Mr Evans said.

"So, in the Bank’s current figuring, restoration of the full employment rate (which through wage pressures and the resulting required narrowing of the output gap is significant for achieving an inflation target) is in the far distant future.

"That means that policy needs to be very stimulatory." 

Negative rates a possibility 

Mr Evans noted while Dr Debelle ruled out negative interest rates, the central bank was in the position of potentially having to deal with a negative overnight rate. 

"Banks, which lend at a margin above the overnight rate will still not be exposed to negative lending rates but this process may provide the RBA with a test of its comfort with negative rates," he said. 

Although the official cash rate target currently sits at 0.25%, the RBA's alternative easing measures have pushed the interbank overnight cash rate down to 0.13%.

NAB revises its cash rate forecasts

In light of Dr Debelle's speech, NAB revised their cash rate forecast, predicting either an October or November rate cut. 

While Mr Evans said there was no reason to wait, NAB economists said a November cut may appeal to more people. 

"NAB expects these further easing measures to be announced at either the October or November Board meetings, noting that the October Board meeting is the same day as the Budget, while the November SMP (Statement on Monetary Policy) after the November Board could be an avenue to communicate its messaging to a wider audience," they said.


Disclaimers

The entire market was not considered in selecting the above products. Rather, a cut-down portion of the market has been considered which includes retail products from at least the big four banks, the top 10 customer-owned institutions and Australia’s larger non-banks:

  • The big four banks are: ANZ, CBA, NAB and Westpac
  • The top 10 customer-owned Institutions are the ten largest mutual banks, credit unions and building societies in Australia, ranked by assets under management in November 2020. They are (in descending order): Great Southern Bank, Newcastle Permanent, Heritage Bank, Peoples’ Choice Credit Union, Teachers Mutual Bank, Greater Bank, IMB Bank, Beyond Bank, Bank Australia and P&N Bank.
  • The larger non-bank lenders are those who (in 2020) has more than $9 billion in Australian funded loans and advances. These groups are: Resimac, Pepper, Liberty and Firstmac.
  • If you click on a product link and you are referred to a Product or Service Provider’s web page, it is highly likely that a commercial relationship exists between that Product or Service Provider and Savings.com.au

Some providers' products may not be available in all states. To be considered, the product and rate must be clearly published on the product provider's web site.

In the interests of full disclosure, Savings.com.au, Performance Drive and Loans.com.au are part of the Firstmac Group. To read about how Savings.com.au manages potential conflicts of interest, along with how we get paid, please click through onto the web site links.

*Comparison rate is based on a loan of $150,000 over a term of 25 years. Please note the comparison rate only applies to the examples given. Different loan amounts and terms will result in different comparison rates. Costs such as redraw fees and costs savings, such as fee waivers, are not included in the comparison rate but may influence the cost of the loan.

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Alex joined Savings.com.au as a finance journalist in 2019. He enjoys covering in-depth economical releases and breaking down how they might affect the everyday punter. He is passionate about providing Australians with the information and tools needed to make them financially stable for their futures.

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