Which regions have seen the biggest property price falls since COVID-19 hit?

^{Photo by Daniel Kuberek on Unsplash}

New research has revealed where the biggest property price falls have occurred since the onset of COVID-19.

With the economy placed into hibernation as a result of the pandemic, the property market has suffered like so many other sectors. 

According to CoreLogic, the regions which have experienced the greatest decrease in dwelling values in May were Mandurah in Perth, and inner Melbourne and Sydney suburbs.

However, despite reports property prices could drop by as much as 30%, declines have been fairly mild so far.

Buying a home or looking to refinance? The table below features home loans with some of the lowest variable interest rates on the market for owner occupiers.

Advertisement

Smart Booster Home Loan Discounted Variable - 2yr (LVR < 80%)

Product Features

• Fast turnaround times, can meet 30-day settlement
• For purchase and refinance, min 20% deposit
• No ongoing or monthly fees, add offset for 0.10%

Monthly repayments:$1,499

2.10%Advertised Rate (p.a.)

2.46%Comparison Rate*

More details

Nationally, the CoreLogic May home value index showed the dwelling market declined just 0.4% over the month, and preliminary indicators for June were showing the rate of decline has gathered some momentum through the month.

CoreLogic Head of Research Eliza Owen said the Australian housing market wasn't one market but a collection of many.

" Over the past few months, dwelling market performance has varied by region, in both a cyclical and structural way," Ms Owen said.

"As per historic cycles, the most expensive parts of Sydney and Melbourne seem to be leading the current downswing." 

Over the month of May, dwelling values in the top quartile of the Melbourne market (dwellings worth $959,500 or more) had fallen by 1.3%, compared with a 0.6% decline across the middle of the market, and a 0.3% decline in the lowest-value quartile.

Across Sydney, the same period saw a decline in the highest market segment (where dwellings are worth over $1.35 million) of 0.6%, followed by a 0.4% decline across the middle of the market, and a slight increase in the lowest value segment of 0.1%.

Ms Owen said the more expensive parts of Sydney and Melbourne have higher levels of volatility, and typically the first to see price changes. 

"Research from the RBA asserts that more expensive property can be most reactive and volatile in responses to changes in the cash rate," she said.

"The performance of property markets amid COVID-19 suggest the high end of the market may also be more responsive to negative economic shocks."

Perth, Melbourne and Sydney property prices worst hit 

Suburbs in Melbourne's inner city and eastern suburbs saw the largest decline across the metropolitan region, according to CoreLogic.

The last two months have also seen a decline in values in high-end Sydney markets, such as North Sydney, the Inner West and the Northern Beaches. 

Maybe more surprising was the continued decline in the Greater Perth region of Mandurah, which saw the largest slip in values over the last two months.

Ms Owen said Mandurah dwelling values were 38% below their 2006 peak at the end of May this year.

"Payroll data analysis from the ABS suggests that payroll job losses across Mandurah has been 6.0% between mid-march and the end of May," Ms Owen said.

"This is not especially severe when it comes to job loss across Perth regions, nor would Mandurah have been particularly susceptible to a demand shock from a decline in overseas migration.

"However, the decline in dwelling values is off the back of a longer-term downward trend, suggesting demand conditions were already fragile across the region."

Property markets most negatively impacted by COVID-19

Capital city region	Region	Change in value - May
Greater Perth	Mandurah	-2.2%
Greater Melbourne	Melbourne – Inner South	-2.2%
Greater Melbourne	Melbourne- Inner	-1.8%
Greater Melbourne	Melbourne – Inner East	-1.8%
Greater Perth	Perth – South East	-1.2%
Greater Melbourne	Melbourne – Outer East	-1.2%
Greater Brisbane	Ipswich	-0.8%
Greater Sydney	Sydney – North Sydney and Hornsby	-0.7%
Greater Sydney	Sydney – Inner West	-0.7%
Greater Sydney	Sydney – Northern Beaches	-0.7%

Source: CoreLogic.

At a suburb level, the worst hit areas were most prevalent in the high end of Sydney and Melbourne. 

Ms Owen said at this stage, sound analysis of the change in suburb-level dwelling markets was limited to areas where there are relatively high sales observations. 

"It appears that Malvern East, in the Melbourne metropolitan, has been the worst suburb-level performer between the end of March and the end of May across the capital cities, with total dwelling market values down -4.8%," she said.

"Other relatively steep value falls have been seen across the Melbourne suburbs of Glen Iris (-3.8%), Northcote (-3.5%), Port Melbourne (-3.2%), and Brunswick East (-3.1%).

"Across Sydney, the biggest suburb-level falls in dwelling values had occurred across Mosman (-2.5%), Lane Cove North (-2.4%) Manly (-2.3%), Leichhardt (-1.7%) and Wentworth Point (-1.4%)."

Ms Owen said as the downturn progressed, declines would continue in inner-city markets which relied on international migration.

As the economic downturn becomes more prolonged, mild price declines are expected to spread over the next 12 months. 

---

Disclaimers

The entire market was not considered in selecting the above products. Rather, a cut-down portion of the market has been considered. Some providers' products may not be available in all states. To be considered, the product and rate must be clearly published on the product provider's web site. Savings.com.au, yourmortgage.com.au, yourinvestmentpropertymag.com.au, and Performance Drive are part of the Savings Media group. In the interests of full disclosure, the Savings Media Group are associated with the Firstmac Group. To read about how Savings Media Group manages potential conflicts of interest, along with how we get paid, please visit the web site links at the bottom of this page.

Latest Articles

• How can I get on the same page about money with my partner? May 24, 2022
• How does a professional twenty-something spend their money in Melbourne? May 24, 2022
• How will a Labor Government affect my personal finances? May 24, 2022
• RACQ Bank launches green car loan May 24, 2022
• ANZ moves out of lockstep with RBA, increases variable home loan rates May 24, 2022