Will the RBA change the cash rate in July?

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on July 07, 2020
Will the RBA change the cash rate in July?

Photo by Harry Cunningham on Unsplash

Australia's central bank meets on Tuesday to discuss the possibility of a change to the cash rate.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has held the cash rate at 0.25% for three consecutive months before today, after cutting the rate twice in March and implementing a quantitative easing (QE) program

Any change to the cash rate for July is looking incredibly unlikely. 

Check out the decision here. 

Buying a home or looking to refinance? The table below features home loans with some of the lowest variable interest rates on the market for owner occupiers.

Lender

Variable
More details
UNLIMITED REDRAWS
  • Fast turnaround times, can meet 30-day settlement
  • For purchase and refinance, min 20% deposit
  • No ongoing or monthly fees, add offset for 0.10%
UNLIMITED REDRAWS

Smart Booster Home Loan Discounted Variable - 2yr (LVR < 80%)

  • Fast turnaround times, can meet 30-day settlement
  • For purchase and refinance, min 20% deposit
  • No ongoing or monthly fees, add offset for 0.10%
Variable
More details
REFINANCE ONLY
  • A low-rate variable home loan from a 100% online lender. Backed by the Commonwealth Bank.
REFINANCE ONLY

Variable Rate Home Loan – Refinance Only

  • A low-rate variable home loan from a 100% online lender. Backed by the Commonwealth Bank.
Variable
More details
AN EASY DIGITAL APPLICATION
  • No ongoing fees - None!
  • Unlimited additional repayments
  • Easy online application, find out if you're approved quick!
  • Redraw- Access your additional payments if you need them
  • Use the app to get loan insights to help you pay off your home loan faster
AN EASY DIGITAL APPLICATION

Neat Variable Home Loan (Principal and Interest) (LVR < 60%)

  • No ongoing fees - None!
  • Unlimited additional repayments
  • Easy online application, find out if you're approved quick!
  • Redraw- Access your additional payments if you need them
  • Use the app to get loan insights to help you pay off your home loan faster
Variable
More details
NO ONGOING FEES
  • No ongoing fees - None!
  • Unlimited additional repayments
  • Easy online application, find out if you're approved quick!
  • Redraw- Access your additional payments if you need them
  • Use the app to get loan insights to help you pay off your home loan faster
NO ONGOING FEES

Yard PAYG Home Loan (Principal and Interest) LVR ≤ 80%

  • No ongoing fees - None!
  • Unlimited additional repayments
  • Easy online application, find out if you're approved quick!
  • Redraw- Access your additional payments if you need them
  • Use the app to get loan insights to help you pay off your home loan faster

Base criteria of: a $400,000 loan amount, variable, fixed, principal and interest (P&I) home loans with an LVR (loan-to-value) ratio of at least 80%. However, the ‘Compare Home Loans’ table allows for calculations to be made on variables as selected and input by the user. All products will list the LVR with the product and rate which are clearly published on the Product Provider’s web site. Monthly repayments, once the base criteria are altered by the user, will be based on the selected products’ advertised rates and determined by the loan amount, repayment type, loan term and LVR as input by the user/you. *The Comparison rate is based on a $150,000 loan over 25 years. Warning: this comparison rate is true only for this example and may not include all fees and charges. Different terms, fees or other loan amounts might result in a different comparison rate. Rates correct as of August 7, 2022. View disclaimer.

NAB economist Ray Attrill said recent remarks from the RBA and current economic and health conditions meant a cash rate hold was all but confirmed. 

"The RBA this afternoon can confidently (be) expected to be on hold as it continues to assess the outlook, where even in its best-case upside scenario, full economic recovery will take years," Mr Attrill said.

"Further, Governor Lowe has emphasised that the economic recovery depends on health outcomes and how quickly confidence is restored, where the recent COVID-19 outbreaks in Victoria have presented an additional downside risk." 

The RBA has been defiant that the cash rate is at its effective floor and repeatedly stated it does not have the appetite for negative interest rates in Australia.

Instead, as a result of the central bank's QE measures, the cash rate has been pushed lower and has hovered around the 13-14 basis point mark. 

At an address to The Economic Society Australia last week, RBA Deputy Governor Guy Debelle said it was unlikely the cash rate would be increased before the end of 2021. 

"The market expectation is that the cash rate will remain around its current level of 13–14 basis points for at least the next year," Mr Debelle said.

"This is consistent with the Board's guidance that the cash rate target will not be raised until progress is being made towards full employment and it is confident that inflation will be sustainably within the 2–3% target band.

"Given the outlook for inflation and the labour market, this is likely to be some years away." 

July 23 looms large 

Although no surprises are expected from the RBA today, their announcement may provide valuable insight into the fiscal cliff Australia is facing at the end of September. 

Treasurer Josh Frydenberg will hand down a mini-budget on July 23, outlining the fate of the boosted JobSeeker payments and the JobKeeper scheme. 

RBA Governor Phillip Lowe has emphasised his concern that economic recovery will be stymied if the support measures are withdrawn too early. 

"I think it's very important that we don't withdraw the fiscal stimulus too early," Dr Lowe said at the end of May.

"Ending the fiscal support could be damaging, but if the economy bounces back then tailoring the fiscal support might be the right thing to do."

Around 3.3 million workers are currently supported by JobKeeper's $1,500 a fortnight payment, and a hard end to the scheme could see a huge spike in unemployment. 

The unemployment rate currently sits at 7.1%, with more than 800,000 people losing their jobs since the start of COVID-19. 

Unwilling to consider negative interest rates, the RBA is essentially all out of tools to manipulate monetary policy, and is now looking to the Government to provide support to the economy through fiscal measures. 




Disclaimers

The entire market was not considered in selecting the above products. Rather, a cut-down portion of the market has been considered. Some providers' products may not be available in all states. To be considered, the product and rate must be clearly published on the product provider's web site. Savings.com.au, yourmortgage.com.au, yourinvestmentpropertymag.com.au, and Performance Drive are part of the Savings Media group. In the interests of full disclosure, the Savings Media Group are associated with the Firstmac Group. To read about how Savings Media Group manages potential conflicts of interest, along with how we get paid, please visit the web site links at the bottom of this page.

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Alex joined Savings.com.au as a finance journalist in 2019. He enjoys covering in-depth economical releases and breaking down how they might affect the everyday punter. He is passionate about providing Australians with the information and tools needed to make them financially stable for their futures.

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