Australia's central bank meets today to discuss the possibility of a change in the cash rate.
Any change to policy looks extremely unlikely, with the Reserve Bank (RBA) set to hold the rate at its record low of 0.25% for the sixth consecutive month.
Check the decision here.
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Base criteria of: a $400,000 loan amount, variable, principal and interest (P&I) home loans with an LVR (loan-to-value) ratio of at least 80%. If products listed have an LVR <80%, they will be clearly identified in the product name along with the specific LVR. The product and rate must be clearly published on the Product Provider’s web site. Monthly repayments were calculated based on the selected products’ advertised rates, applied to a $400,000 loan with a 30-year loan term.
NAB economist Kaixin Owyong said the RBA was universally expected to keep monetary policy unchanged and call on the government to provide support to the economy.
"In recent communications, the RBA has emphasised that it judged its package of monetary stimulus as appropriate, where cheaper borrowing rates would help support the recovery," Ms Owyong said.
"That said, the RBA stressed it remains willing to do more 'if circumstances warrant'.
"The RBA has also highlighted the important and continuing role for fiscal policy, which is best able to support the economy through the pandemic-driven collapse in demand.
"We expect the RBA to echo similar thoughts in its September post-meeting statement."
Recent comments from RBA Governor Phillip Lowe have suggested the central bank could take rates lower, without taking them negative which has repeatedly been ruled out.
Dr Lowe said it could be possible to take the rate to 10 basis points by reconfiguring the current package if conditions warranted so.
Although the official cash rate is 0.25%, the RBA's quantitative easing program has pushed down the actual rate to hover around 0.13%.
A hike in the cash rate seems extraordinarily unlikely, as the RBA has often reaffirmed the rate wouldn't be raised unless progress towards full employment was made and inflation sits between its desired band of 2-3%.
The most recent figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics show Australia is experiencing deflation for only the third time in its history.
The consumer price index plunged 1.9% in the June quarter, the biggest drop since records began 72 years ago, taking annual inflation to -0.3%.
While unemployment increased only marginally from 7.4% to 7.5% in July, the Treasury last week forecasted the effective unemployment rate would increase to more than 13% in the September quarter.
The RBA has forecasted unemployment will remain above 7% until at least the end of 2021.
RBA to hold fire ahead of GDP figures
The central bank may have further reason to hold the cash rate compared to previous months ahead of the June quarter national accounts, which are likely to confirm the full fallout from COVID-19.
NAB economists are expecting GDP to decline by 5.8%, while JPMorgan senior economist Tom Kennedy is expecting a 7.2% decline, with most other forecasts in between this band.
The figures are expected to show the greatest quarterly fall in Australia's history, with the previous record for negative growth of 2.0% set in the June quarter of 1974.
Mr Kennedy's forecast of a 7.2% contraction would equate to $34 billion, taking quarterly GDP back to June 2016 levels.
The entire market was not considered in selecting the above products. Rather, a cut-down portion of the market has been considered which includes retail products from at least the big four banks, the top 10 customer-owned institutions and Australia’s larger non-banks:
- The big four banks are: ANZ, CBA, NAB and Westpac
- The top 10 customer-owned Institutions are the ten largest mutual banks, credit unions and building societies in Australia, ranked by assets under management in November 2020. They are (in descending order): Credit Union Australia, Newcastle Permanent, Heritage Bank, Peoples’ Choice Credit Union, Teachers Mutual Bank, Greater Bank, IMB Bank, Beyond Bank, Bank Australia and P&N Bank.
- The larger non-bank lenders are those who (in 2020) has more than $9 billion in Australian funded loans and advances. These groups are: Resimac, Pepper, Liberty and Firstmac.
Some providers' products may not be available in all states. To be considered, the product and rate must be clearly published on the product provider's web site.
In the interests of full disclosure, Savings.com.au, Performance Drive and Loans.com.au are part of the Firstmac Group. To read about how Savings.com.au manages potential conflicts of interest, along with how we get paid, please click through onto the web site links.
*Comparison rate is based on a loan of $150,000 over a term of 25 years. Please note the comparison rate only applies to the examples given. Different loan amounts and terms will result in different comparison rates. Costs such as redraw fees and costs savings, such as fee waivers, are not included in the comparison rate but may inﬂuence the cost of the loan.
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