Expert predicts up to 50% house price growth in the next two years

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on December 30, 2021 Fact Checked
Expert predicts up to 50% house price growth in the next two years

The housing boom still has legs according to this property expert, with regional Australia set to be the 'biggest beneficiary'.

Propertyology's Head of Research Simon Pressley was the only property analyst to predict the initial housing boom, and this time, he's predicting house prices will skyrocket by 30% to 50% across the country over the next two years.

Specifically, Mr Pressley forecasts Brisbane and Hobart house prices will rise by more than 20% next year.

He also predicts Adelaide and Canberra's capital growth will be in the high teens and Perth circa 10%.

This is while Sydney, Melbourne, and Darwin are predicted to produce single-digit growth in 2022.

Going against the gradient, Mr Pressley said it's conceivable that Brisbane, Perth, Hobart, and Canberra could 'easily produce' between 30% and 50% detached house price growth over the two years ending December 2023.

He said that a plethora of regional locations will "do even better", driven by what he calls the "lifestyle movement".

"The combined sum of the many factors that influence property prices points towards a continuation of very strong growth in asset values for quite some time yet," Mr Pressley said.

"[The lifestyle movement] will produce the highest rates of relocations and home upgrades in human history. It is a period when more dreams will be achieved."

PLGpred.jpg

Source: Propertyology

Australia's best property markets will be 'among 200 regional towns'

Mr Pressley said regional Australia will be the 'biggest beneficiary' of the new era of the lifestyle movement.

He said that more than 30% growth is predicted for at least 20 'regional wonders' next year.

"During the first 12-months of COVID-19, the population of regional Australia increased by 51,000, whereas the eight capital cities produced a combined 17,000 decline," he said.

A long list of regional towns have stronger local economies than capital cities, tighter housing supply, and high rates of internal migration.

According to Mr Pressley, this will drive 'significantly stronger' property market performance.

However, he said the biggest and most important story in Australia right now is household rents.

He predicts that asking rents for standard houses will increase by as much as $10,000 in 2022 alone, and is concerned by regulator's "obvious lack of understanding of the inputs for rental supply and demand".

PLGagain.jpg

Source: Propertyology

Brisbane and Hobart property markets set to keep kicking

Mr Pressley said Brisbane's current property market growth is coming from 15 years of suppressed real estate activity.

"The economy of Australia’s third largest city is still not as strong as many other locations and commentary about internal migration and infrastructure investment is grossly exaggerated," Mr Pressley said.

"But the overall conditions are such that we anticipate growth of 25% to 30% in 2022, the strongest Brisbane will have seen since 2003."

He also predicts that Hobart, Australia's best-performing market over the past seven years, will produce circa 20% capital growth next year.

"Tasmania has become home to the most precious real estate in the country. Hobart currently has 70% less resale supply than five years ago and only 97 dwellings advertised for rent," Mr Pressley said.

An accurate read of Sydney and Melbourne's property markets is 'impossible' due to constrained activity during lockdowns in the second half of 2021 according to Mr Pressley.

However, he said the underlying fundamentals of these markets are "the softest in Australia".

"Melbourne had 125,000 less jobs in October 2021 than two years earlier, the city’s population has already declined by 50,000 and state government debt is now three times higher than pre-pandemic levels," he said.

"Like water, oil and flour, this is not a good mix."


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The entire market was not considered in selecting the above products. Rather, a cut-down portion of the market has been considered. Some providers' products may not be available in all states. To be considered, the product and rate must be clearly published on the product provider's web site. Savings.com.au, yourmortgage.com.au, yourinvestmentpropertymag.com.au, and Performance Drive are part of the Savings Media group. In the interests of full disclosure, the Savings Media Group are associated with the Firstmac Group. To read about how Savings Media Group manages potential conflicts of interest, along with how we get paid, please visit the web site links at the bottom of this page.

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Rachel is a Finance Journalist, and joined Savings in 2021. Coming from a background in the FinTech space, her interests include the innovation of lending technology, property, investing, and more. With a passion for educating and informing people about their finances, she hopes to increase the financial literacy of everyday Australians.

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