The number of Australians who believe now is a good time to buy has rebounded to 23% in the past quarter (July through September), after dropping to a survey low of 18% in the second quarter (April through June).

This figure is only marginally lower than it was a year ago despite six consecutive quarterly declines. 

Home buying intentions improved in all states in the third quarter except the ACT which bucked the trend - where those who felt it was a good time to buy fell sharply to 20% (27% in the second quarter).

The highest increase in people's intention to buy was reported in Victoria (from 21% in Q2 to 27%) and NSW (from 18% in Q2 to 25%), WA saw no real change (25%), and there was a moderate increase in QLD (19%), SA (19%) and TAS (18%).

NAB Group Executive for Personal Banking Rachel Slade said spring had brought green shoots to the housing market.

"The housing market, like the broader economy, is proving resilient in 2022," Ms Slade said.

"The first rate rises in more than a decade have caused concern, but signs the pace of rate rises are easing has generated a rebound in confidence through the crucial spring selling season.

"Surging rental prices are also a factor, both encouraging investors back into the market as well as first home buyers looking to escape rising rents.

"While we expect prices have further to fall, there are reasons for more optimism than a couple of months ago."

Since beginning rate increases in May, the RBA has hiked interest rates by 50 basis points every month, until October saw a slow of pace - dropping to a 25 basis point increase.

The NAB research also found that renovating a property had become more of a challenge - with 60% of Australians in the property survey that had undertaken a renovation, noted costs were rising. 

In the third quarter, the number of Australians who thought now would be a good time to renovate also dropped to a survey low of one in five (21%), well short of the one in three recorded in the March quarter.

Ms Slade noted that inflation and the labour shortage continue to have an impact on home building and renovations.

"Most Australians aren’t confident they will be able to renovate in a timely, cost-efficient way, although there is hope price hikes will start to moderate into 2023," Ms Slade said.

"Unsurprisingly, it is typically houses that need a bit of love that are struggling to find buyers at the moment, while houses that are move-in ready are often finding strong demand, particularly given the relative lack of supply.

"We are focused on giving buyers the confidence and support to buy their dream home with fast approvals, while making sure existing homeowners know their options and have help available for anyone worried about rising rates."

The NAB survey comes off the back of the Albanese Government's Federal Budget, which announced the supply of one million new homes over five years from 2024, under the new National Housing Accord.

So is now a good time to buy property?

NAB predicts that dwelling prices will continue to decline by around 20% across the capital cities, from their peak in April 2022.

The Property Insight Report also noted that the economy is expected to remain resilient in the near-term.

However, growth will slow over the next two years as the rebound from lockdowns continues to fade and higher interest rates and inflation begin to weigh on household consumption.

NAB also forecasts further rate increases by the RBA, expecting it to reach 3.1% by early 2023 - before a pause to assess the economic impact of three percentage points' worth of rate hikes. 


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Update resultsUpdate
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Base criteria of: a $400,000 loan amount, variable, fixed, principal and interest (P&I) home loans with an LVR (loan-to-value) ratio of at least 80%. However, the ‘Compare Home Loans’ table allows for calculations to be made on variables as selected and input by the user. Some products will be marked as promoted, featured or sponsored and may appear prominently in the tables regardless of their attributes. All products will list the LVR with the product and rate which are clearly published on the product provider’s website. Monthly repayments, once the base criteria are altered by the user, will be based on the selected products’ advertised rates and determined by the loan amount, repayment type, loan term and LVR as input by the user/you. *The Comparison rate is based on a $150,000 loan over 25 years. Warning: this comparison rate is true only for this example and may not include all fees and charges. Different terms, fees or other loan amounts might result in a different comparison rate. Rates correct as of . View disclaimer.

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