As per the RBA rate tracker powered by the ASX, market expectations are the chance of the RBA holding the cash rate steady at 4.10% at September's board meeting is above 90%, 93% on 9 August.
The other 7% of traders expect a rate cut, back down to 3.85%, so for now, expectations are that interest rates have peaked.
After the monetary policy decision for August, several of the providers offering the highest rates in Australia cut back returns, and they have done so again this week, with AMP, Judo, Bank of Sydney and Macquarie all cutting at least some term deposit rates.
However, there remained some upward movement this week: 4.10% is still the highest the cash rate has been in more than a decade after all, and some banks have decided it's worth the risk to push rates up, increasing market share.
Bank of Sydney varies rate by up to 30 basis points
| Term length | Deposit size | Payment frequency | Interest rate (Percentage point change) |
| Three months | $1,000-$1,000,000 | End of term | 4.85% p.a (-0.20) |
| Six months | $1,000-$1,000,000 | End of term | 5.00% p.a (-0.20) |
| One year | $1,000-$1,000,000 | End of term | 4.30% p.a (+0.30) |
Once again, Bank of Sydney cut back returns on its previously market leading six month term deposit products, now down 50 basis points from the peak at 5.50% p.a.
AMP now offers the highest available rates in Australia for six month term deposits (per Savings.com.au's market research) at 5.15% p.a for deposits over $25,000.
It wasn't all rate cuts from Bank of Sydney though, with a 30 basis point increase to its one year terms.
Two weeks ago, this product saw rates slashed by 100 basis points.
Macquarie cuts rates by up to 10 basis points
| Term length | Deposit size | Payment frequency | Interest rate (Percentage point change) |
| Three months | $5,000-$1,000,000 | End of term | 4.70% p.a (-0.10) |
| Nine months | $5,000-$1,000,000 | End of term | 4.75% p.a (-0.05) |
| One year | $5,000-$1,000,000 | End of term | 4.80% p.a (-0.05) |
Bendigo increases rates by up to 65 basis points
| Term length | Deposit size | Payment frequency | Interest rate (Percentage point change) |
| Three months | $5,000-$5,000,000 | End of term | 3.50% p.a (+0.50) |
| Six months | $5,000-$5,000,000 | End of term | 4.20% p.a (+0.15) |
| Nine months | $5,000-$5,000,000 | End of term | 4.10% p.a (+0.30) |
| One year | $5,000-$5,000,000 | End of term | 4.90% p.a (+0.15) |
| Two years | $5,000-$5,000,000 | End of term | 3.95% p.a (+0.65) |
Term deposit enthusiasts will know we haven't heard too much from Bendigo Bank over the last few months, but Australia's seventh biggest bank (by market capitalisation) made big moves this week, with increases of up to 65 basis points.
The highest rate available at Bendigo & Adelaide is a 4.90% p.a return on one year term deposits, 30 basis points behind AMP which offers a maximum rate of 5.20% p.a for one year.
Bendigo was key to the ACCC decision to block ANZ taking over Suncorp, with the regulator indicating a merger between Bendigo and Suncorp would be preferable to promote competition in the banking sector.
Some people though have questioned whether this is a realistic proposition, with Suncorp's market cap (including the insurance business) about three times larger than Bendigo.
Suncorp executives have also played down Bendigo's eagerness.
Increasing market share could help Bendigo establish itself as a viable candidate to absorb Suncorp banking, so aggressively hiking up term deposit rates like this might be part of a broader strategy.
Judo varies rates by up to 20 basis points
| Term length | Deposit size | Payment frequency | Interest rate (Percentage point change) |
| Three months | $1,000-$999,999 | End of term | 4.75% p.a (-0.10) |
| Six months | $1,000-$999,999 | End of term | 4.95% p.a (-0.20) |
| Nine months | $1,000-$999,999 | End of term | 4.95% p.a (-0.20) |
| One year | $1,000-$999,999 | End of term | 5.10% p.a (-0.10) |
| Two years | $1,000-$999,999 | End of term | 5.20% p.a (-0.15) |
The big hitters keep cutting back, with Judo also lowering returns this week.
It did increase rates on 4 year terms by 5 basis points, but short term products all had rates cut, suggesting how the neobank sees the next few months playing out.
For one year terms with a deposit size below $25,000, Judo is 5 basis points lower than AMP.
AMP decreases rates by up to 20 basis points
| Term length | Deposit size | Payment frequency | Interest rate (Percentage point change) |
| Three months | $25,000-$4,999,999.99 | End of term | 4.85% p.a (-0.20) |
| Nine months | $25,000-$4,999,999.99 | End of term | 5.10% p.a (-0.15) |
| One year | $5,000-$24,999.99 | End of term | 5.15% p.a (-0.20) |
| One year | $25,000-$4,999,999.99 | End of term | 5.20% p.a (-0.20) |
| Two years | $25,000-$4,999,999.99 | Annually | 5.05% p.a (-0.15) |
Like Bank of Sydney and Judo, AMP keeps cutting back rates.
However, the bank continues to offer returns among the highest available in Australia, with other providers dropping rates more substantially.
AMP discounts rates by 5, 10 and 20 basis points respectively for semi annual, quarterly and monthly interest payments.
Other movements
- BCU decreases rates by 35 basis points
- Arab Bank Australia increases rates by up to 100 basis points
- RaboBank decreases rates by 10 basis points
- Northern Inland Credit Union increases rates by up to 25 basis points
- MyState decreases rates by up to 20 basis points
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Harry O'Sullivan
William Jolly
