CoreLogic’s latest Home Value Index (HVI) for Australia rose 0.7% in July, marking the fifth straight month of gains.

Yet, some signs point to a weakening in the market as the rise last month is a further deceleration from the 1.2% increase seen in May and 1.1% lift in June

CoreLogic Research Director Tim Lawless said the monthly pace of growth in Sydney home values has halved from a recent high of 1.8% in May to 0.9% in July.

“Sydney has also seen a significant rise in the number of fresh listings added to the market, 9.9% higher than the same time last year and 18% above the previous five-year average,” Mr Lawless said.

“An increased flow of new listings provides more choice and may be working to reduce some of the urgency felt among prospective buyers.”

Brisbane and Adelaide tied for top spot in recording the strongest housing price growth out of all eight capital cities.

Both cities saw a 1.4% increase in value from June to July.

Elsewhere around the country, Perth recorded the second strongest monthly growth at 1%, followed by Sydney, 0.9%; Melbourne, 0.3%; and Darwin, 0.3%.

Canberra was a lone wolf in July, posting a 0.1% decline - while Hobart values remained unchanged.

Nationally, home values remain-5.3% below the peak in April 2022.

Rival data firm PropTrack recorded a more modest home value growth of 0.2% for July.

Month Annual Median value
Sydney 0.9% -2.1% $1,082,129
Melbourne 0.3% 4% $766,912
Brisbane 1.4% -6.2% $735,394
Adelaide 1.4% 1% $671,755
Perth 1% 3.4% $598,074
Hobart 0% -11.4% $655,984
Darwin 0.3% -1.2% $488.363
Canberra -0.1% -7.9% $839,507
Combined capitals 0.8% -2.7% $797,815
Combined regionals 0.2% -5.6% $587,891
National 0.7% -3.4% $728,831

Source: CoreLogic Home Value Index July 2023

The slowdown in the overall growth of property prices has been driven by the premium end of the market, which recorded a modest 0.7% increase in July off the back of a 1.8% increase in May.

“Premium housing markets tend to lead the cycles, so the slowdown in the pace of growth could be a sign of a broader easing in the pace of growth over the coming months," Mr Lawless said.

AMP Chief Economist Shane Oliver said the outlook for house prices remains uncertain.

“While our base case is that home prices have bottomed, the risk of another leg down as the full lagged impact of interest rate hikes on the property market and on unemployment materialises is very high,” Mr Oliver said.

“A recession [which is now a 50/50 risk] would add to the risk of another leg down in property prices.

“In the last three major cyclical upswings in home prices, lower interest rates have been required to drive a sustained rise in home prices and this is unlikely until next year.”


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