According to ANZ’s latest housing report, capital city property prices are set to fall 18% over the balance of 2022-23, before climbing by a modest 5% in late 2024.
While Sydney and Melbourne are expected to bear the brunt of falls, the report noted all capital cities, including regional areas would be impacted.
ANZ senior economists Felicity Emmett and Adelaide Timbrell said the steep increases in mortgage rates between May and end-2022 along with reduced borrowing capacity are the main drivers for declining property prices.
“Our forecast for the cash rate to reach 3.35% equates to a reduction in borrowing capacity of nearly 30%,” Ms Emmett and Ms Timbrell said.
“This reduced ability to pay up will drive prices lower over coming months.
“Already housing finance data show that average new mortgage sizes are beginning to fall.”
The report also noted that while low unemployment, rising household incomes, tight rental markets, and increasing immigration will cushion the fall of house prices, rates would need to decline to see the market pick up again.
“In 2024, we expect to see the beginnings of a recovery in house prices, alongside cuts in the cash rate in the second half,” Ms Emmett and Ms Timbrell said.
AMP Chief Economist Shane Oliver expects a 15-20% top to bottom fall in property prices, assuming the cash rate tops out around 2.6% early next year.
“Sydney, Melbourne, and Canberra are likely to see 20% or so falls. Brisbane, Adelaide, and Hobart are likely to see 15% or so declines while falls are likely to be only around 5-10% in Perth and Darwin,” Mr Oliver said.
“But money expectations for a 3.5% cash rate could push this to a 25-30% fall.”
In terms of construction activity, the ANZ report predicts a 16% decline over 2023-24 as “higher mortgage rates constrain lending”.
However, renovation activity and the backlog of work in the pipeline will support construction for the remainder of this year.
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