In May the RBA defied many economists' forecasts, increasing the cash rate target by 25 basis points, bringing it to 0.35% - not the 15 or 40 basis points as widely tipped.

RBA Governor Dr Philip Lowe said the cash rate profile by the end of 2022 could look something like 1.50% to 1.75%.

Other central banks around the world have so far moved a lot more aggressively than the RBA.

For example, last Wednesday New Zealand's Reserve Bank increased the cash rate by 50 basis points, bringing it to 2.00%, marking the fifth meeting in a row it has increased.

The US Federal Reserve increased its rate by 50 basis points to 1.00% and has flagged it will do the same over the next few meetings.

One big marker for the RBA's decision is Wednesday's GDP figures for the first quarter of 2022, and it seems that a 25 basis point hike is on the agenda again.

"A stronger than expected number might encourage some more hawkish RBA expectations," Westpac's rate strategy team said.

"Beyond that, we await next week’s June Board meeting - fully priced for 25 basis point rate hike and almost a 50% chance of a 40 basis point rate hike."

CommBank head of Australian economics Gareth Aird said the RBA will persist with 25 basis point hikes.

"We expect the RBA to deliver another 'business as usual' rate hike of 25 basis points at the June Board meeting," Mr Aird said.

"The optics of delivering a larger than 25 basis point increase in the cash rate in June might imply that the RBA Board has changed their assessment of the outlook for inflation and/or inflation risks based on the change of Government."

AMP Capital chief economist Dr Shane Oliver also said it's likely to be 25 basis points.

"Moving earlier and faster initially should allow the RBA to slow the pace of rate hikes next year," Dr Oliver said.

"And through next year the combination of fixed rate borrowers seeing a doubling in their interest rate as their fixed terms come to an end and falling home prices exerting a negative wealth effect will start to do some of the RBA’s work for it."


Buying a home or looking to refinance? The table below features home loans with some of the lowest interest rates on the market for owner occupiers.

Update resultsUpdate
LenderHome LoanInterest Rate Comparison Rate* Monthly Repayment Repayment type Rate Type Offset Redraw Ongoing Fees Upfront Fees LVR Lump Sum Repayment Additional Repayments Split Loan Option TagsFeaturesLinkCompare
6.04% p.a.
6.06% p.a.
Principal & Interest
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5.99% p.a.
5.90% p.a.
Principal & Interest
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6.14% p.a.
6.16% p.a.
Principal & Interest
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Important Information and Comparison Rate Warning

Base criteria of: a $400,000 loan amount, variable, fixed, principal and interest (P&I) home loans with an LVR (loan-to-value) ratio of at least 80%. However, the ‘Compare Home Loans’ table allows for calculations to be made on variables as selected and input by the user. Some products will be marked as promoted, featured or sponsored and may appear prominently in the tables regardless of their attributes. All products will list the LVR with the product and rate which are clearly published on the product provider’s website. Monthly repayments, once the base criteria are altered by the user, will be based on the selected products’ advertised rates and determined by the loan amount, repayment type, loan term and LVR as input by the user/you. *The Comparison rate is based on a $150,000 loan over 25 years. Warning: this comparison rate is true only for this example and may not include all fees and charges. Different terms, fees or other loan amounts might result in a different comparison rate. Rates correct as of . View disclaimer.

Photo by Phillip Goldsberry on Unsplash

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