By how much could the RBA increase the cash rate in June?

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on May 31, 2022 Fact Checked
By how much could the RBA increase the cash rate in June?

New month, new Reserve Bank monetary policy meeting - and it seems to be a question of 'how high', not 'if' it will increase the cash rate target.

In May the RBA defied many economists' forecasts, increasing the cash rate target by 25 basis points, bringing it to 0.35% - not the 15 or 40 basis points as widely tipped.

RBA Governor Dr Philip Lowe said the cash rate profile by the end of 2022 could look something like 1.50% to 1.75%.

Other central banks around the world have so far moved a lot more aggressively than the RBA.

For example, last Wednesday New Zealand's Reserve Bank increased the cash rate by 50 basis points, bringing it to 2.00%, marking the fifth meeting in a row it has increased.

The US Federal Reserve increased its rate by 50 basis points to 1.00% and has flagged it will do the same over the next few meetings.


One big marker for the RBA's decision is Wednesday's GDP figures for the first quarter of 2022, and it seems that a 25 basis point hike is on the agenda again.

"A stronger than expected number might encourage some more hawkish RBA expectations," Westpac's rate strategy team said.

"Beyond that, we await next week’s June Board meeting - fully priced for 25 basis point rate hike and almost a 50% chance of a 40 basis point rate hike."

CommBank head of Australian economics Gareth Aird said the RBA will persist with 25 basis point hikes.

"We expect the RBA to deliver another 'business as usual' rate hike of 25 basis points at the June Board meeting," Mr Aird said.

"The optics of delivering a larger than 25 basis point increase in the cash rate in June might imply that the RBA Board has changed their assessment of the outlook for inflation and/or inflation risks based on the change of Government."

AMP Capital chief economist Dr Shane Oliver also said it's likely to be 25 basis points.

"Moving earlier and faster initially should allow the RBA to slow the pace of rate hikes next year," Dr Oliver said.

"And through next year the combination of fixed rate borrowers seeing a doubling in their interest rate as their fixed terms come to an end and falling home prices exerting a negative wealth effect will start to do some of the RBA’s work for it."


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Harrison is Savings.com.au's Assistant Editor. Prior to joining Savings in January 2020, he worked for some of Australia's largest comparison sites and media organisations. With a keen interest in the economy, housing policy, and personal finance, Harrison strives to deliver and edit news and guides that are engaging, thought-provoking, and simple to read.

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