The lowest owner occupier advertised rate at NAB is now 5.84% p.a. (6.60% p.a. comparison rate*) for three year fixed loans with LVR up to 80%.

That's below the home loan range at CommBank and Westpac, although still behind the 5.74% p.a. (6.81% p.a.. comparison rate*) available for three year fixed terms at ANZ.

These rate changes come after NAB economists officially declared a 25 bps cut to be the likeliest outcome at the February RBA meeting.

This would take the cash rate to 4.10% and would mark the first downward move in more than four years. 

NAB Chief Group Economist Alan Oster said that while he still sees value in waiting, it looks like the RBA will decide to pull the trigger.

"The pivot in the RBA's communication in December, confirmation of weaker than forecast CPI outcome for Q4 and a softer outlook for the housing components of inflation...means we think the RBA will now make the first cut in February," he said.

NAB home loan rate cuts

These are the new fixed rates at NAB for owner occupiers:

Product Rate Change
One year fixed (LVR ≤60%) Down 5 bps to 6.09% p.a. (6.80% p.a. comparison rate*)
Two year fixed (LVR ≤60%) Down 15 bps to 5.89% p.a. (6.69% p.a. comparison rate*)
Three year fixed (LVR ≤60%) Down 5 bps to 5.84% p.a. (6.60% p.a. comparison rate*)
Four year fixed (LVR ≤60%) Down 5 bps to 6.19% p.a. (6.65% p.a. comparison rate*)
Five year fixed (LVR ≤60%) Down 5 bps to 6.24% p.a. (6.63% p.a. comparison rate*)
One year fixed (LVR 60-70%) Down 5 bps to 6.09% p.a. (6.80% p.a. comparison rate*)
Two year fixed (LVR 60-70%) Down 15 bps to 5.89% p.a. (6.69% p.a. comparison rate*)
Three year fixed (LVR 60-70%) Down 5 bps to 5.84% p.a. (6.60% p.a. comparison rate*)
Four year fixed (LVR 60-70%) Down 5 bps to 6.19% p.a. (6.65% p.a. comparison rate*)
Five year fixed (LVR 60-70%) Down 5 bps to 6.24% p.a. (6.63% p.a. comparison rate*)
One year fixed (LVR 70-80%) Down 10 bps to 6.09% p.a. (6.98% p.a. comparison rate*)
Two year fixed (LVR 70-80%) Down 20 bps to 5.89% p.a. (6.85% p.a. comparison rate*)
Three year fixed (LVR 70-80%) Down 10 bps to 5.84% p.a. (6.74% p.a. comparison rate*)
Four year fixed (LVR 70-80%) Down 10 bps to 6.19% p.a. (6.78% p.a. comparison rate*)
Five year fixed (LVR 70-80%) Down 10 bps to 6.24% p.a. (6.74% p.a. comparison rate*)
One year fixed (LVR >80%) Down 15 bps to 6.19% p.a. (6.99% p.a. comparison rate*)
Two year fixed (LVR >80%) Down 10 bps to 5.99% p.a. (6.87% p.a. comparison rate*)

And for investors:

Product Rate Change
Investment one year fixed (LVR 60-70%) Down 25 bps to 6.19% p.a. (7.08% p.a. comparison rate*)
Investment two year fixed (LVR 60-70%) Down 25 bps to 5.99% p.a. (6.95% p.a. comparison rate*)
Investment three year fixed (LVR 60-70%) Down 10 bps to 5.99% p.a. (6.85% p.a. comparison rate*)
Investment four year fixed (LVR 60-70%) Down 5 bps to 6.39% p.a. (6.91% p.a. comparison rate*)
Investment five year fixed (LVR 60-70%) Down 5 bps to 6.44% p.a. (6.88% p.a. comparison rate*)
Investment one year fixed (LVR 70-80%) Down 30 bps to 6.19% p.a. (7.25% p.a. comparison rate*)
Investment two year fixed (LVR 70-80%) Down 30 bps to 5.99% p.a. (7.11% p.a. comparison rate*)
Investment three year fixed (LVR 70-80%) Down 15 bps to 5.99% p.a. (6.99% p.a. comparison rate*)
Investment four year fixed (LVR 70-80%) Down 10 bps to 6.39% p.a. (7.04% p.a. comparison rate*)
Investment five year fixed (LVR 70-80%) Down 10 bps to 6.44% p.a. (6.99% p.a. comparison rate*)

Cash rate cut a lock?

NAB joins economists from CommBank, Westpac and ANZ in officially predicting a February rate cut.

There's renewed confidence the inflation outlook is moderating after the Q4 CPI numbers.

Prices rose just 0.2% through the three months to December, the lowest quarterly increase since the height of the pandemic in June 2020.

Trimmed mean inflation came in at 3.2% for the calendar year, below the 3.4% the RBA were predicting in the most recent Statement on Monetary Policy.

Financial markets are seemingly convinced - the ASX RBA rate tracker estimated the chance of a cut to be 95% as of 31 January.

However, as WeBull Securities CEO Rob Talevski told the Savings Tip Jar podcast, the strong labour market could persuade the RBA to hold fire on 18 February.

""You've got a lot of people employed, they're spending and that can keep [inflationary] pressure up," he said.


Picture from NAB





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