NAB’s Residential Property Report Survey of property professionals for Q1 2019 shows longer-term confidence in the property market has improved, suggesting housing market conditions may start improving moving into 2021.

Confidence levels are the highest in South Australia and the Northern Territory, with the best prospects for house price growth in the country.

Western Australia is still tipped by property professionals to lead the country for house price growth in two years time. Armadale, Gosnells and Scarborough are the regions tipped to lead the way for above average price growth.

Source: NAB
graph of suburbs with growth

In New South Wales, it’s Bondi, Newcastle and Sydney, while Noble Park and Werribee are the suburbs to watch in Victoria.

The Sunshine Coast, Tugun and Windsor are the Queensland suburbs most likely to see above average price growth this year.

Hobart is also expected to see good growth, with property prices there increasing by 6% over the past year.

Property falls in Sydney and Melbourne larger than expected

It comes after the bank revised down its predictions for residential property price falls in Australia’s two biggest cities, saying the fall in values since the start of last year has exceeded its forecasts.

“We expect peak to trough declines of 20% in Sydney, 15% in Melbourne, and a weaker outlook across the other capitals,” NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster said.

“Overall, we expect some further price declines in 2019, before leveling out in 2020. We expect the weakness to be driven by ongoing declines in Sydney and Melbourne.”

A Moody’s Analytics report released earlier this week also forecast house prices to drop this year before staging a modest recovery in 2020.

The report said the current downturn could be further exacerbated by Labor’s proposed changes to negative gearing and further tightening in lending restrictions.

Property industry unites to fight negative gearing crackdown

In response, the Real Estate Institute of Australia (REIA) have declared war on Bill Shorten’s negative gearing overhaul, and will launch a four-week Federal Election campaign using customer databases to target buyers, sellers, landholders and tenants in key marginals seats.

The industry-backed campaign will harness social media platforms to promote key-attack lines against the Labor policy, arguing it will reduce property prices in a cooling market and pose a danger to the economy.

“REIA is concerned about the adverse economic impacts the policy would have, particularly during a property market downturn. The policy, if adapted, will have negative impacts on mum and dad investors, home owners, renters, the construction industry, state governments and the economy,” REIA President Adrian Kelly said.

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