On Monday CBA forecast prices to fall 10% in 2023 and last week ANZ released similar forecasts (-4%).

In 2020 at the height of the pandemic CBA also predicted up to 30% price falls in a 'worst case scenario' in a year where prices increased by more than 5%.

The other major banks also forecast much the same.

Head of research at Propertyology, Simon Pressley (pictured above), told Savings.com.au these predictions are becoming near meaningless.

"I made a conscious decision to try to totally ignore whatever banks and economists had to say about property markets several years ago," Mr Pressley said.

"I grew to realise that their predictions are more often wrong than right and, given there are no consequences for them to ever learn about the complexities, if I continued to listen to them I’d be harming my own professional development."

Propertyology was one of the few research houses to predict price growth over 2020, as well as a rental squeeze.

Look beyond capital cities

CoreLogic data also shows five out of the top ten areas for rental price growth were not in capital cities. 

While many banks and economists focus on capital cities for property price predictions, Propertyology highlights regional towns and cities as growth areas.

Ranking Region Median House Price Change - 5 Years to May 2021
1 Byron NSW 105%
2 Kingscliff NSW 103%
3 Wonthaggi Vic 95%
4 Yamba NSW 86%
5 Noosa Qld 84%
6 Cooma NSW 83%
7 Leongatha Vic 80%
8 Orange NSW 78%
9 Ballina NSW 73%
10 Kiama NSW 70%

Source: Propertyology

Its analysis of more than 550 individual Australian property markets in the five years ending May 2021 revealed Orange NSW was the city that best punched above its weight.

Orange recorded a 78% increase in the median house price, the eighth best performing market overall.

The NSW town ranks 56th in terms of population.

Coastal NSW also dominated the rankings, which Mr Pressley called "real estate Viagra". 

In August Mr Pressley likened Sydney's property price performance to India's Olympics medal tally - huge population but middle-of-the-road performance.

He also said Melbourne property is on 'fragile' footing.

"We have our own very structured process for analysing markets literally all over Australia. Following that process often brings us to completely different conclusions to banks and everyone else," Mr Pressley told Savings.com.au.

"There’s obviously no such thing as a crystal ball, but our process has proven far more reliable than listening to anyone else."


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Base criteria of: a $400,000 loan amount, variable, fixed, principal and interest (P&I) home loans with an LVR (loan-to-value) ratio of at least 80%. However, the ‘Compare Home Loans’ table allows for calculations to be made on variables as selected and input by the user. Some products will be marked as promoted, featured or sponsored and may appear prominently in the tables regardless of their attributes. All products will list the LVR with the product and rate which are clearly published on the product provider’s website. Monthly repayments, once the base criteria are altered by the user, will be based on the selected products’ advertised rates and determined by the loan amount, repayment type, loan term and LVR as input by the user/you. *The Comparison rate is based on a $150,000 loan over 25 years. Warning: this comparison rate is true only for this example and may not include all fees and charges. Different terms, fees or other loan amounts might result in a different comparison rate. Rates correct as of . View disclaimer.

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