Home News October Cash Rate Preview: Will the RBA go 25 or 50 basis points?

October Cash Rate Preview: Will the RBA go 25 or 50 basis points?

The Reserve Bank will meet next Tuesday to determine the cash rate for October with yet another 50 basis point increase likely.

By Staff Writers

on 30 Sep 2022

Fact Checked

October Cash Rate Preview: Will the RBA go 25 or 50 basis points?

This remains the consensus across most major bank economists, with another 50 basis point increase anticipated to lift the cash rate to 2.85%.

If forecasts are correct, the 275 basis points of tightening to the cash rate will see it reach its highest print since May 2013, when the rate reached 2.75%.

Following May's decision to lift the cash rate for the first time since November 2010, RBA Governor Dr Philip Lowe signalled 25 basis points as the standard amount the RBA moves the cash rate.

The RBA has since then made four-consecutive 50 basis point increases, with the potential move on Tuesday being the fifth.

Westpac Chief Economist Bill Evans expects the RBA to lift the cash rate by 50 basis points.

“In light of the rise in global rates, it seems sensible to push the cash rate to 2.85% in October, taking it comfortably above the neutral benchmark before scaling back the pace of rate increases,” Mr Evans said.

“Rate hikes are expected to continue out to February 2023 as the December inflation report is likely to show consumer prices lifting strong in the December quarter.”

CommBank economists lie at odds with other major banks, anticipating the RBA to slow the pace of tightening and lifting the cash rate by 25 basis points, taking the rate to 2.60%.

AMP Chief Economist Shane Oliver said the RBA should scale back to a 25 basis point increase at its October meeting, but it’s starting to feel like another 0.50%.

“A 0.40% hike might be a nice compromise,” Mr Oliver said.

Monthly inflation figures 'will not' impact RBA's October decision

With the ABS releasing monthly inflation figures as a further guide to inflation in the economy, Reserve Bank Deputy Governor Michelle Bullock said the figures won’t have monetary policy implications for October given they do not account for the full basket of goods.

"What I would say is that our forecasts for inflation are to peak at about 7.75% to 8.0% towards the end and early into next year, so those are the numbers we’re currently working with," Ms Bullock said.

CommBank economists Gareth Aird and Stephen Wu said the data is likely to be welcomed by the RBA behind closed doors, having come in below expectations.

"The RBA’s expectation for inflation to peak at 7.75% to 8% implies quarterly increases of 1.8% in CPI over the next two quarters," the economists said.

Eyes will now turn to ABS data released across the next few months as the fuel excise has now returned in full.

"Petrol price moves have an immediate impact on budgets and are often seen as a bellwether for wider inflation," Westpac Chief Economist Bill Evans said.

See Also: When will interest rate rises stop?

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Provider	Base interest rate	Max interest rate	Total interest earned	Introductory Term	Minimum Amount	Maximum Amount	Account Keeping Fees	Min. Monthly Deposit	Min. Opening Deposit	Linked account required	ATM Access	EFTPOS Facility	as ofOctober 22, 2024

	5.00^%_p.a.	Intro rate for 4 monthsthen 5.00% p.a. 5.50^%_p.a.	^$536	4	^$0	^$249,999	0	0	0	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	More details
FEATURED	Savings Account A high-interest online savings account with no monthly fees, easy withdrawals and award-winning digital banking No withdrawal notice periods or interest rate penalties Save up to 10% on eGift cards at over 50 retailers with Macquarie Marketplace
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FEATURED Savings Account A high-interest online savings account with no monthly fees, easy withdrawals and award-winning digital banking No withdrawal notice periods or interest rate penalties Save up to 10% on eGift cards at over 50 retailers with Macquarie Marketplace More details Disclosure
	4.70^%_p.a.	Intro rate for 4 monthsthen 4.70% p.a. 5.40^%_p.a.	^$519	4	^$250,000	^$99,999,999		0	0	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	More details
FEATURED	Savings Accelerator Special offer: Savings Accelerator (Kick Starter offer). For a limited time, new ING customers can get a bonus 0.70% p.a. on their savings rate on balances of $150,000 up to $500,000 for the first 4 months. T&Cs apply. If your balance is over $500,000 (but less than $5 million) you will earn the ongoing variable rate of 4.7%
Disclosure
FEATURED Savings Accelerator Special offer: Savings Accelerator (Kick Starter offer). For a limited time, new ING customers can get a bonus 0.70% p.a. on their savings rate on balances of $150,000 up to $500,000 for the first 4 months. T&Cs apply. If your balance is over $500,000 (but less than $5 million) you will earn the ongoing variable rate of 4.7% More details Disclosure
	Bonus rate of 5.50%Rate varies on savings amount. –	5.50^%_p.a.	^$556		^$0	^$99,999	0	0	0	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	More details
FEATURED	Save Account Set up your Pay Cycle and connect your accounts from over 140 financial institutions. Retrace your spending steps into categories with Spending Footprint. Start tapping straightaway with Apple Pay, Google Pay™, Samsung Pay, and Garmin Pay. No monthly or international fees on any of your transactions.
Disclosure
FEATURED Save Account Set up your Pay Cycle and connect your accounts from over 140 financial institutions. Retrace your spending steps into categories with Spending Footprint. Start tapping straightaway with Apple Pay, Google Pay™, Samsung Pay, and Garmin Pay. No monthly or international fees on any of your transactions. More details Disclosure
	Bonus rate of 3.90%Rate varies on savings amount. 1.45^%_p.a.	5.35^%_p.a.	^$541		^$0	^$249,999	0	200	0	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	More details
FEATURED	Online Savings - Premium Saver
Disclosure
FEATURED Online Savings - Premium Saver More details Disclosure
	Bonus rate of 4.95%Rate varies on savings amount. 0.55^%_p.a.	5.50^%_p.a.	^$556		^$0	^$99,999	0	1000	0	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	More details
	Savings Maximiser Deposit at least $1,000+ each month from an external source Make 5 or more eligible transactions Grow your savings balance each month
Disclosure
Savings Maximiser Deposit at least $1,000+ each month from an external source Make 5 or more eligible transactions Grow your savings balance each month More details Disclosure
	Bonus rate of 4.20%Rate varies on savings amount. 1.00^%_p.a.	5.20^%_p.a.	^$526		^$0	^$99,999,999	0	1000	0	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	More details
	AMP Saver Account Earn up to 5.20% pa by depositing $1,000 in the previous month No account fees Easy access to your money
Disclosure
AMP Saver Account Earn up to 5.20% pa by depositing $1,000 in the previous month No account fees Easy access to your money More details Disclosure
	Bonus rate of 5.00%Rate varies on savings amount. 0.55^%_p.a.	5.55^%_p.a.	^$561		^$0	^$99,999	0	2000	0	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	More details
	HomeME Savings Account (<$100k)
HomeME Savings Account (<$100k) More details
	Bonus rate of 5.40%Rate varies on savings amount. 0.10^%_p.a.	5.50^%_p.a.	^$556		^$0	^$49,999	0	200	1	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	More details
	Growth Saver
Growth Saver More details
	Bonus rate of 5.30%Rate varies on savings amount. 0.05^%_p.a.	5.35^%_p.a.	^$541		^$0	^$249,999	0	1000		$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	More details
	Virgin Money Boost Saver
Virgin Money Boost Saver More details
	Bonus rate of 5.00%Rate varies on savings amount. 0.10^%_p.a.	5.10^%_p.a.	^$515		^$0	^$99,999	0	100	1	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	More details
	Bonus Saver Account
Bonus Saver Account More details
	Bonus rate of 5.24%Rate varies on savings amount. 0.01^%_p.a.	5.25^%_p.a.	^$531		^$0	^$99,999	0	100	0	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	More details
	Bonus Saver
Bonus Saver More details
	Bonus rate of 5.00%Rate varies on savings amount. 0.10^%_p.a.	5.10^%_p.a.	^$515		^$0	^$49,999	0	10	0	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	More details
	mySaver
mySaver More details
	4.85^%_p.a.	5.35^%_p.a.	^$490		^$0	^$99,999,999	0	0	0	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	More details
	Simple Saver
Simple Saver More details
	1.50^%_p.a.	Intro rate for 4 monthsthen 1.50% p.a. 5.20^%_p.a.	^$399	4	^$0	^$99,999,999	0	0	1	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	More details
	Netsave Account
Netsave Account More details
	1.00^%_p.a.	Intro rate for 3 monthsthen 1.00% p.a. 5.20^%_p.a.	^$311	3	^$0	^$99,999,999	0	0	0	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	More details
	Online Savings Account
Online Savings Account More details
	Bonus rate of 0.00%Rate varies on savings amount. 3.00^%_p.a.	Intro rate for 3 monthsthen 3.00% p.a. 5.15^%_p.a.	^$409	3	^$0	^$99,999,999	0	0	0	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	More details
	HSBC Everyday Savings Account
HSBC Everyday Savings Account More details
	Bonus rate of 3.30%Rate varies on savings amount. 1.85^%_p.a.	5.25^%_p.a.	^$521		^$0	^$249,999	0	50	1	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	More details
	Incentive Saver Account
Incentive Saver Account More details
	4.00^%_p.a.	Intro rate for 4 monthsthen 4.00% p.a. 5.35^%_p.a.	^$493	4	^$0	^$249,999	0	0	0.01	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	More details
	Bankwest Easy Saver
Bankwest Easy Saver More details
	Bonus rate of 5.09%Rate varies on savings amount. 0.01^%_p.a.	5.10^%_p.a.	^$515		^$0	^$99,999,999	0	50	2	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	More details
	Bonus Saver
Bonus Saver More details
	Bonus rate of 3.20%Rate varies on savings amount. 1.85^%_p.a.	5.15^%_p.a.	^$510		^$0	^$249,999	0	50	0	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	More details
	Incentive Saver Account
Incentive Saver Account More details
	Bonus rate of 4.70%Rate varies on savings amount. 0.35^%_p.a.	5.05^%_p.a.	^$510		^$0	^$99,999,999	0	200	0	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	More details
	Growth Saver Account
Growth Saver Account More details
	Bonus rate of 4.00%Rate varies on savings amount. 1.00^%_p.a.	5.00^%_p.a.	^$505		^$0	^$99,999,999	0	50	1	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	More details
	Save up
Save up More details
	1.00^%_p.a.	Intro rate for 4 monthsthen 1.00% p.a. 5.00^%_p.a.	^$369	4	^$0	^$99,999,999	0	0	0	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	More details
	Bonus Saver
Bonus Saver More details
	Bonus rate of 4.95%Rate varies on savings amount. 0.05^%_p.a.	5.00^%_p.a.	^$505		^$0	^$249,999	0	20	0	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	More details
	MyState Bank Bonus Saver Account
MyState Bank Bonus Saver Account More details
	1.00^%_p.a.	Intro rate for 4 monthsthen 1.00% p.a. 5.00^%_p.a.	^$369	4	^$0	^$99,999,999	0	0	0	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	More details
	Hi Saver
Hi Saver More details
	5.00^%_p.a.	5.00^%_p.a.	^$505		^$0	^$19,999	0		0	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	More details
	Mighty Saver
Mighty Saver More details
	Bonus rate of 4.90%Rate varies on savings amount. 0.10^%_p.a.	5.00^%_p.a.	^$505		^$0	^$99,999,999	0	0	0	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	More details
	Max eSaver
Max eSaver More details
	Bonus rate of 0.15%Rate varies on savings amount. 1.10^%_p.a.	Intro rate for 3 monthsthen 1.25% p.a. 5.15^%_p.a.	^$321	3	^$0	^$99,999,999	0	0	0	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	More details
	Maxi Saver
Maxi Saver More details
	Bonus rate of 3.15%Rate varies on savings amount. 1.85^%_p.a.	5.00^%_p.a.	^$505		^$0	^$99,999,999	0	0.01	0	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	More details
	Life
Life More details
	Bonus rate of 4.90%Rate varies on savings amount. 0.10^%_p.a.	5.00^%_p.a.	^$505		^$0	^$499,999	0	200	1	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	More details
	Bonus Saver
Bonus Saver More details
	Bonus rate of 4.94%Rate varies on savings amount. 0.01^%_p.a.	4.95^%_p.a.	^$500		^$0	^$99,999,999	0	200		$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	More details
	Bonus Saver Account
Bonus Saver Account More details
	Bonus rate of 4.50%Rate varies on savings amount. 0.40^%_p.a.	4.90^%_p.a.	^$495		^$0	^$99,999,999	0	0.01	0	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	More details
	GoalSaver Account
GoalSaver Account More details
	0.50^%_p.a.	0.50^%_p.a.	^$50		^$0	^$99,999,999				$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	More details
	ANZ Save
ANZ Save More details
	3.45^%_p.a.	Intro rate for 4 monthsthen 3.45% p.a. 4.90^%_p.a.	^$444	4	^$0	^$99,999	0	0	1	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	More details
	Online Saver
Online Saver More details
	Bonus rate of 4.65%Rate varies on savings amount. 0.10^%_p.a.	4.75^%_p.a.	^$480		^$50,000	^$499,999	0	10	0	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	More details
	mySaver
mySaver More details
	3.40^%_p.a.	Intro rate for 4 monthsthen 3.40% p.a. 4.75^%_p.a.	^$432	4	^$250,000	^$99,999,999	0	0	1	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	More details
	High Interest Savings Account (<$250k)
High Interest Savings Account (<$250k) More details
	Bonus rate of 4.65%Rate varies on savings amount. 0.10^%_p.a.	4.75^%_p.a.	^$480		^$100,000	^$249,999	0	100	1	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	More details
	Bonus Saver Account
Bonus Saver Account More details
	Bonus rate of 4.64%Rate varies on savings amount. 0.01^%_p.a.	4.65^%_p.a.	^$470		^$0	^$249,999	0	50	0	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	More details
	Purple Bonus Saver
Purple Bonus Saver More details
	Bonus rate of 4.55%Rate varies on savings amount. 0.10^%_p.a.	4.65^%_p.a.	^$470		^$0	^$99,999,999	6	100	0	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	More details
	Bonus Saver Account
Bonus Saver Account More details
	Bonus rate of 4.35%Rate varies on savings amount. 0.20^%_p.a.	4.55^%_p.a.	^$459		^$0	^$249,999	0	10	0	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	More details
	SwiftSaver Account
SwiftSaver Account More details
	Bonus rate of 4.55%Rate varies on savings amount. 0.05^%_p.a.	4.60^%_p.a.	^$464		^$0	^$99,999,999	0	100	0	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	More details
	Bonus Saver
Bonus Saver More details
	Bonus rate of 4.49%Rate varies on savings amount. 0.01^%_p.a.	4.50^%_p.a.	^$454		^$0	^$249,999	50	50	1	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	More details
	Bonus Saver
Bonus Saver More details
	4.45^%_p.a.	4.45^%_p.a.	^$449		^$500,000	^$99,999,999	0		0	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	More details
	Qsaver
Qsaver More details
	Bonus rate of 4.39%Rate varies on savings amount. 0.01^%_p.a.	4.40^%_p.a.	^$444		^$0	^$99,999,999	0	1	1	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	More details
	Target Bonus
Target Bonus More details
	4.40^%_p.a.	4.40^%_p.a.	^$444		^$100,000	^$99,999,999	0		0	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	More details
	Pension Plus
Pension Plus More details
	Bonus rate of 4.35%Rate varies on savings amount. –	4.35^%_p.a.	^$439		^$0	^$99,999,999	0	0	1	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	More details
	Up Saver Account
Up Saver Account More details
	Bonus rate of 4.20%Rate varies on savings amount. 0.10^%_p.a.	4.30^%_p.a.	^$434		^$250,000	^$499,999	0	100	1	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	$product[$field["value"]]	More details
	Bonus Saver Account
Bonus Saver Account More details

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Start tapping straightaway with Apple Pay, Google Pay™, Samsung Pay, and Garmin Pay.
No monthly or international fees on any of your transactions.

Total interest earned$556

0.00 % Base interest rate

Bonus rate of

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AMP Saver Account

HomeME Savings Account (<$100k)

HomeME Savings Account (<$100k)

Growth Saver

Growth Saver

Virgin Money Boost Saver

Virgin Money Boost Saver

Bonus Saver Account

Bonus Saver Account

Bonus Saver

Bonus Saver

mySaver

mySaver

Simple Saver

Simple Saver

Netsave Account

Netsave Account

Online Savings Account

Online Savings Account

HSBC Everyday Savings Account

HSBC Everyday Savings Account

Incentive Saver Account

Incentive Saver Account

Bankwest Easy Saver

Bankwest Easy Saver

Bonus Saver

Bonus Saver

Incentive Saver Account

Incentive Saver Account

Growth Saver Account

Growth Saver Account

Save up

Save up

Bonus Saver

Bonus Saver

MyState Bank Bonus Saver Account

MyState Bank Bonus Saver Account

Hi Saver

Hi Saver

Mighty Saver

Mighty Saver

Max eSaver

Max eSaver

Maxi Saver

Maxi Saver

Life

Life

Bonus Saver

Bonus Saver

Bonus Saver Account

Bonus Saver Account

GoalSaver Account

GoalSaver Account

ANZ Save

ANZ Save

Online Saver

Online Saver

mySaver

mySaver

High Interest Savings Account (<$250k)

High Interest Savings Account (<$250k)

Bonus Saver Account

Bonus Saver Account

Purple Bonus Saver

Purple Bonus Saver

Bonus Saver Account

Bonus Saver Account